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    • About This Report
    • Guide to the Report
    • Report Credits
    • Companion Podcast
    • Additional Resources
    • About this Report
    • Guide to this Report
    • OVERVIEW
    • Physical Science
    • 2. Climate Trends
    • 3. Earth Systems Processes
    • National Topics
    • 4. Water
    • 5. Energy
    • 6. Land
    • 7. Forests
    • 8. Ecosystems
    • 9. Coasts
    • 10. Oceans
    • 11. Agriculture
    • 12. Built Environment
    • 13. Transportation
    • 14. Air Quality
    • 15. Human Health
    • 16. Indigenous Peoples
    • 17. International
    • 18. Complex Systems
    • 19. Economics
    • 20. Social Systems and Justice
    • Regions
    • 21. Northeast
    • 22. Southeast
    • 23. US Caribbean
    • 24. Midwest
    • 25. Northern Great Plains
    • 26. Southern Great Plains
    • 27. Northwest
    • 28. Southwest
    • 29. Alaska
    • 30. Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
    • Responses
    • 31. Adaptation
    • 32. Mitigation
    • Focus On
    • F1. Compound Events
    • F2. Western Wildfires
    • F3. COVID-19 and Climate Change
    • F4. Risks to Supply Chains
    • F5. Blue Carbon
    • Appendices
    • A1. Process
    • A2. Information Quality
    • A3. Scenarios and Datasets
    • A4. Indicators
    • A5. Glossary

    • All Figures
    • All Key Messages
    • View All Report Downloads
  • Art × Climate
  • NCA Atlas
  • EN ESPAÑOL
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Fifth National Climate Assessment
All Figures

Front Matter
1: Fifth National Climate Assessment Regions
A map of the Fifth National Climate Assessment regions shown in different colors.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment explores subnational climate change risks, impacts, and responses in each of the 10 regions shown.
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Chapter 1: Overview
1.1: Climate Change Risks and Opportunities in the US
Climate Change Risks and Opportunities in the US
Climate change presents risks while action to limit warming and reduce risks presents opportunities for the US.
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1.2: Historical Trends in Unit Costs and Deployment of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in the United States
Historical Trends in Unit Costs and Deployment of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in the United States
Increasing capacities and decreasing costs of low-carbon energy technologies are supporting efforts to further reduce emissions.
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1.3: US Adaptation and Mitigation Actions
US Adaptation and Mitigation Actions
Cities and states are acting on climate change, with a substantial increase in new activities underway since 2018.
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1.4: Future Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Pathways
Future Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Pathways
Different scenarios of future carbon dioxide emissions are used to explore the range of possible climate futures.
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1.5: US and Global Changes in Average Surface Temperature
US and Global Changes in Average Surface Temperature
The US has warmed rapidly since the 1970s.
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1.6: Rapid and Unprecedented Changes
Rapid and Unprecedented Changes
Current climate conditions are unprecedented for thousands of years.
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1.7: Damages by State from Billion-Dollar Disasters (2018–2022)
Damages by State from Billion-Dollar Disasters (2018–2022)
The US now experiences, on average, a billion-dollar weather or climate disaster every three weeks.
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1.8: Land Surface Temperature and Its Relationship to Median Household Income for Three Cities
Land Surface Temperature and Its Relationship to Median Household Income for Three Cities
Lower-income urban neighborhoods experience higher surface temperatures.
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1.9: Projected Increases in Average Annual Losses (AALs) from Floods by 2050
Projected Increases in Average Annual Losses (AALs) from Floods by 2050
Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents.
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1.10: US Flooding Risks in 2020 and 2050
US Flooding Risks in 2020 and 2050
Increasing flooding puts more people and assets at risk.
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1.11: Exemplifying Indigenous Resilience
Exemplifying Indigenous Resilience
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1.12: Energy Employment (2020–2050) for Alternative Net-Zero Pathways
Energy Employment (2020–2050) for Alternative Net-Zero Pathways
Employment gains in electrification and renewable energy industries are projected to far outpace job losses in fossil fuel industries.
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1.13: Potential Warming Pathways in the United States
Potential Warming Pathways in the United States
When or if the US reaches a particular level of warming depends on global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
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1.14: Regional Changes in Climate Compared to Present-Day Conditions
Regional Changes in Climate Compared to Present-Day Conditions
What would 3.6°F (2°C) of global warming feel like in the United States?
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1.15: Consequences Are Greater at Higher Global Warming Levels
Consequences Are Greater at Higher Global Warming Levels
At higher global warming levels, the US will experience more severe climate impacts.
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1.16: Portfolio of Mitigation Options for Achieving Net Zero by 2050
Portfolio of Mitigation Options for Achieving Net Zero by 2050
Reaching net zero by 2050 in the US will involve a mix of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and increases in carbon dioxide removal.
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Chapter 2: Climate Trends
2.1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the US and Other Sources
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the US and Other Sources
China is now the largest single-country emitter of carbon dioxide on an annual basis. The United States and Europe have emitted the majority of cumulative carbon dioxide.
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2.2: Observed Trends in Aerosol Optical Depth from 2002 to 2021
Observed Trends in Aerosol Optical Depth from 2002 to 2021
Trends in aerosol optical depth show decreases in aerosol pollution across the eastern United States.
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2.3: Evidence for Climate Change Across Multiple Variables
Evidence for Climate Change Across Multiple Variables
Changes across the Earth system reflect the influence of human activities on the climate.
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2.4: Observed Changes in Annual, Winter, and Summer Temperature and Precipitation
Observed Changes in Annual, Winter, and Summer Temperature and Precipitation
Temperature has increased and precipitation has changed over much of the United States.
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2.5: Observed Sea Level Trends
Observed Sea Level Trends
Sea levels are rising across most US coastal areas.
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2.6: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters in 2022
Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters in 2022
The US experienced 18 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2022.
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2.7: Observed Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes
Observed Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes
Hot days have increased in the West, hot nights have increased nearly everywhere, and cold days have decreased.
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2.8: Observed Changes in the Frequency and Severity of Heavy Precipitation Events
Observed Changes in the Frequency and Severity of Heavy Precipitation Events
Heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense across much of the country.
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2.9: Projected US Temperatures Changes at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
Projected US Temperatures Changes at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
The United States is projected to warm faster than the global average.
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2.10: Projected US Precipitation Changes at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
Projected US Precipitation Changes at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
Precipitation changes are projected to be larger at higher levels of warming.
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2.11: Projected Changes to Hot and Cold Extremes at 2°C of Global Warming
Projected Changes to Hot and Cold Extremes at 2°C of Global Warming
More hot days, even more warm nights, and fewer cold days are expected at a global warming level of 2°C.
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2.12: Projected Changes to Precipitation Extremes at 2°C of Global Warming
Projected Changes to Precipitation Extremes at 2°C of Global Warming
Increases in the frequency and severity of heavy precipitation are expected at a global warming level of 2°C.
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2.13: Projected Changes to Sea Surface Temperatures at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
Projected Changes to Sea Surface Temperatures at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of Global Warming
At higher global warming levels, sea surface temperatures are projected to change around the US coasts and open ocean, with implications for marine resources in those waters.
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2.14: Projected Global Surface Temperature Change
Projected Global Surface Temperature Change
Future emissions of greenhouse gases determine whether and how quickly we reach 2°C of global warming.
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2.15: Possible Regional Tipping Elements
Possible Regional Tipping Elements
Continued warming could push some aspects of the Earth system past tipping points.
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Chapter 3: Earth Systems Processes
3.1: Observed Global Warming and Attribution to Climate Drivers
Observed Global Warming and Attribution to Climate Drivers
The warming observed over the industrial era was driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling.
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3.2: Feedbacks in the Climate System
Feedbacks in the Climate System
Multiple feedback processes in the climate system amplify or partially diminish the response to radiative forcing; quantifying their values is necessary to determine the climate response to human activities.
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3.3: Advances in Understanding Climate Sensitivity and Climate Feedback
Advances in Understanding Climate Sensitivity and Climate Feedback
Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and feedbacks have been reduced by synthesizing multiple lines of evidence.
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3.4: SSP-Based Scenarios and Their Use in Climate Model Projections
SSP-Based Scenarios and Their Use in Climate Model Projections
Projections of future climate involve a multistep process using scenarios about future socioeconomic developments, policy goals, and emissions to drive Earth system models.
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3.5: Winter Surface Air Temperature Trends in Large Ensemble Simulations
Winter Surface Air Temperature Trends in Large Ensemble Simulations
Large ensemble simulations provide a plausible range of trends in winter surface air temperature combining the human-caused climate change and natural variability. The observed trend falls within the range simulated by the large ensemble for the historical period.
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3.6: Natural Variability and Climate Model and Scenario Uncertainties
Natural Variability and Climate Model and Scenario Uncertainties
The sources of uncertainty in climate projections vary depending on timescale and geographical scale and for different aspects of the climate system.
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3.7: Changes in the Contributions of Moderate and Extreme Events to Total Precipitation with Warming
Changes in the Contributions of Moderate and Extreme Events to Total Precipitation with Warming
As the climate warms, extreme precipitation events become more intense and make up a larger fraction of total precipitation, while moderate events become less common.
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3.8: Carbon Dioxide Sources and Sinks
Carbon Dioxide Sources and Sinks
While the land and ocean take up some of the carbon dioxide from human activities, the rest continues to accumulate in the atmosphere every year.
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3.9: Changes in Ocean, Cryosphere, and Coastal Processes
Changes in Ocean, Cryosphere, and Coastal Processes
Climate change has multiple effects on the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere and their complex interactions.
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3.10: Coastal Flood Exposure
Coastal Flood Exposure
Sea level rise is increasing the probability of coastal flooding and associated impacts.
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3.11: Regional Differences in Climate Response
Regional Differences in Climate Response
While temperatures have been rising almost everywhere, warming has not occurred uniformly over the planet.
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3.12: Climatic Drivers of Drought, Effects on Water Availability, and Impacts
Climatic Drivers of Drought, Effects on Water Availability, and Impacts
Climate change alters the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase drought in some regions through various process pathways.
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3.13: Consecutive Events Leading to and Resulting from Wildfires
Consecutive Events Leading to and Resulting from Wildfires
Consecutive events caused significant human health and economic impacts in Southern California from 2012 through 2018.
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Chapter 4: Water
4.1: Water-Related Billion-Dollar Disasters in the United States
Water-Related Billion-Dollar Disasters in the United States
Water-related billion-dollar disasters are increasing in the United States.
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4.2: Climate Change Impacts to Water Quality
Climate Change Impacts to Water Quality
Climate change threatens the quality of freshwater supplies.
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4.3: Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation by Midcentury
Annual precipitation projections show large regional differences and a wide range of potential differences.
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4.4: Projected Changes in Annual Actual Evapotranspiration by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Annual Actual Evapotranspiration by Midcentury
Actual evapotranspiration is projected to increase across most of the Nation but decrease in the Southern Great Plains and Southwest.
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4.5: Projected Changes in Maximum Annual Snow Water Equivalent by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Maximum Annual Snow Water Equivalent by Midcentury
Continued decreases in snowpack water content are projected across much of the US.
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4.6: Projected Changes in Average Summer (June–August) Soil Moisture by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Average Summer (June–August) Soil Moisture by Midcentury
Projected decreases in summer soil moisture will have important implications for agriculture and ecosystems.
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4.7: Projected Changes in Annual Runoff by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Annual Runoff by Midcentury
Projected changes in runoff vary across the Nation due to projected changes in multiple aspects of the water cycle.
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4.8: Climate Change Impacts to Inland Flood Drivers and Flood Activity
Climate Change Impacts to Inland Flood Drivers and Flood Activity
Climate change may cause both increases and decreases in inland flooding, depending on the location and time of year.
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4.9: Projected Changes in Annual Climatic Water Deficit by Midcentury
Projected Changes in Annual Climatic Water Deficit by Midcentury
Water shortages to vegetation will increase across most of the Nation.
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4.10: Washington–California Snow Drought
Washington–California Snow Drought
In 2015, parts of Oregon and Washington experienced a warm snow drought while the California Sierra Nevada experienced a dry snow drought.
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4.11: Washington Apple Orchard Under Drought Stress
Washington Apple Orchard Under Drought Stress
An apple orchard in the Roza Irrigation District in Washington shows extreme drought stress in September 2015.
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4.12: Flood Damages Associated with Precipitation Change
Flood Damages Associated with Precipitation Change
A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation.
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4.13: San Pedro River, Arizona
San Pedro River, Arizona
The San Pedro River in Arizona has been depleted by groundwater pumping, drying up wetlands and wildlife habitat.
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4.14: Projected Increases in Average Annual Losses (AALs) from Floods by 2050
Projected Increases in Average Annual Losses (AALs) from Floods by 2050
Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents.
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4.15: Residential Flooding from Hurricane Harvey
Residential Flooding from Hurricane Harvey
Flooding from Hurricane Harvey inundated residential neighborhoods in Port Arthur, Texas.
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4.16: American Indian/Alaska Native Homes Requiring Water and Sewer System Improvements
American Indian/Alaska Native Homes Requiring Water and Sewer System Improvements
Water infrastructure supporting Tribal and Indigenous Peoples is particularly ill-equipped to handle increases in flooding and drought.
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4.17: Resolving Water Conflicts within the Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River System
Resolving Water Conflicts within the Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River System
Plan 2014 was developed to manage Lake Ontario–St Lawrence River water levels, restore ecosystems, and account for climate change.
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4.18: Natural Hydrologic Variability Influences Policy
Natural Hydrologic Variability Influences Policy
Natural hydrologic variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning.
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Chapter 5: Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand
5.1: Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System
Climate Change Impacts on the Energy System
All aspects of the US energy system are vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
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5.2: Projected Changes in Electricity Demand
Projected Changes in Electricity Demand
Due to climate change, electricity demand is projected to increase over this century.
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5.3: Consecutive and Cascading Events Involving the Energy System
Consecutive and Cascading Events Involving the Energy System
Sequential and concurrent climate impacts have near-term and long-term effects on electricity generation and distribution.
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5.4: Potential Energy System Resilience Solutions
Potential Energy System Resilience Solutions
Many strategies are available to increase energy system resilience to climate change.
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5.5: Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings
Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings
A reimagination of building design and operation is being driven by decarbonization goals.
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5.6: Energy System Decarbonization
Energy System Decarbonization
Decarbonization will require innovative solutions across multiple sectors.
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5.7: Historic and Projected US Electricity Generation Sources
Historic and Projected US Electricity Generation Sources
The Nation’s electricity grid continues to expand use of clean energy technologies.
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Chapter 6: Land Cover and Land-Use Change
6.1: Present-Day Land Cover
Present-Day Land Cover
The United States is characterized by complex spatial distributions of developed, managed, and natural land-cover types.
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6.2: US Land-Cover Conversions, 1985–2020
US Land-Cover Conversions, 1985–2020
Land-cover change can result from development, forest management, wildfire, and other causes.
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6.3: Expansion of Developed Land Cover
Expansion of Developed Land Cover
Increased development decreases natural and managed land cover.
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6.4: US Average Land Cover and Land-Cover Change
US Average Land Cover and Land-Cover Change
Developed land is increasing, while land with tree cover is on the decline.
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6.5: Damage from Postfire Debris Flows
Damage from Postfire Debris Flows
Postfire debris flows threaten public safety.
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6.6: Carbon Flux Response to Land-Cover and Land-Use Change
Carbon Flux Response to Land-Cover and Land-Use Change
Changes in land cover and land use affect the fluxes of carbon taken up on land or released into the atmosphere, with impacts on these fluxes lasting for decades to centuries.
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6.7: Land, Climate Change, and Ecosystem Resilience
Land, Climate Change, and Ecosystem Resilience
This figure shows the primary land-use and land-cover changes, their interactions with climate, and impact on ecosystems.
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6.8: Mitigation and Adaptation Value of Future Land-Use Choices
Mitigation and Adaptation Value of Future Land-Use Choices
Future land-use choices have implications for climate mitigation and adaptation.
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6.9: Scenario-Based Future Land-Use Trends
Scenario-Based Future Land-Use Trends
Future land-use scenarios describe a wide range of possible land-use changes in the United States.
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6.10: Possible Future Wind and Solar Power Siting
Possible Future Wind and Solar Power Siting
Reaching net-zero emissions will require many new wind and solar projects across the US.
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6.11: Wind Power in Agricultural Landscapes
Wind Power in Agricultural Landscapes
Renewable energy generation can be sited in ways that minimize agricultural disruption.
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Chapter 7: Forests
7.1: Tree Cover Dynamics
Tree Cover Dynamics
The persistence of tree cover in the United States varies due to many driving forces.
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7.2: Estimated Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Wildfires and Prescribed Fires
Estimated Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Wildfires and Prescribed Fires
The amount of forest area burned and associated greenhouse gas emissions have increased in recent decades in the United States.
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7.3: Coastal Ghost Forest
Coastal Ghost Forest
Coastal ghost forests result when trees are killed by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion.
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7.4: Very Large Fires
Very Large Fires
Conditions conducive to very large fires are projected to increase.
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7.5: Effects of Climate Change on Forests
Effects of Climate Change on Forests
Climate change and climate-related disturbances are affecting forests in the United States.
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7.6: Spruce and Pine Beetle Outbreaks
Spruce and Pine Beetle Outbreaks
Outbreaks of spruce and pine beetles, partly attributable to climate change, are killing trees in the West.
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7.7: Forest Ecosystem Services
Forest Ecosystem Services
Climate change has affected the provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services in the United States.
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7.8: Forest Carbon Sink
Forest Carbon Sink
The forest carbon sink has declined in recent decades in the United States, with substantial interannual variability.
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7.9: Climate Effects on Forest Water Resources
Climate Effects on Forest Water Resources
Climate change and climate-related disturbances are affecting the availability and quality of water from forests in the United States.
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7.10: Climate Adaptation and Forest Ownership
Climate Adaptation and Forest Ownership
Adaptation actions occur across many types of forest ownership and management in the United States.
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Chapter 8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
8.1: Climate Change and Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
Climate Change and Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide.
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8.2: Regional Impacts
Regional Impacts
All US regions are experiencing impacts of climate change on species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services.
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8.3: Ecosystem Impacts and Risks
Ecosystem Impacts and Risks
Ecosystem impacts and risks increase at higher levels of global warming.
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8.4: Amplifying Climate Change Effects on Watersheds
Amplifying Climate Change Effects on Watersheds
Climate effects on watersheds exemplify the amplifying impacts of gradual and episodic stressors.
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8.5: Tipping Points and Regime Changes
Tipping Points and Regime Changes
The Arctic faces substantial impacts from thawing permafrost that cannot be reversed.
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8.6: Abrupt Changes in Ecosystem State
Abrupt Changes in Ecosystem State
Climate change interacts with other stressors to cause synergistic effects, and resulting ecosystem changes can be abrupt and difficult to reverse.
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8.7: Unique and Vulnerable Ecosystems
Unique and Vulnerable Ecosystems
Transformations to ecosystems are already noticeable and widespread.
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8.8: Monitoring Ecosystem Changes
Monitoring Ecosystem Changes
Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions.
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8.9: Adaptation and Transformation Planning Frameworks
Adaptation and Transformation Planning Frameworks
Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems.
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8.10: Extreme Event Impacts
Extreme Event Impacts
Short-term extreme events can have severe impacts on threatened species.
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8.11: Observed Range Shifts and Changes in Phenology
Observed Range Shifts and Changes in Phenology
Climate change is leading to shifts in phenology and range for species across the United States.
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8.12: Environmental Mosaics and Climate Refugia
Environmental Mosaics and Climate Refugia
Climate refugia are locations where environmental conditions are changing more slowly than in the surrounding region.
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8.13: Observed Pollinator Sensitivities
Observed Pollinator Sensitivities
Insect pollinator responses to environmental stressors, even within the same taxonomic grouping, can vary widely.
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8.14: Threats to North Atlantic Right Whales
Threats to North Atlantic Right Whales
Climate change increases risks to the endangered North Atlantic right whale.
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8.15: Invasive Species and Climate Change
Invasive Species and Climate Change
Damaging invasive species that are expected to shift in range because of climate change.
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8.16: Managing for Species Adaptation
Managing for Species Adaptation
Assisted migration can help species adapt to changing climate conditions.
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8.17: Ecosystem Services and Their Benefits
Ecosystem Services and Their Benefits
Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual.
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8.18: Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change.
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8.19: Climate Mitigation Potential of Nature-Based Solutions in 2025
Climate Mitigation Potential of Nature-Based Solutions in 2025
Nature-based solutions can support carbon storage while also providing other benefits.
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Chapter 9: Coastal Effects
9.1: Accelerating Relative Sea Level Rise in the Contiguous US
Accelerating Relative Sea Level Rise in the Contiguous US
Sea level is projected to continue to increase this century by amounts related to future global warming levels.
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9.2: Projected Sea Level Rise
Projected Sea Level Rise
By 2050 and 2100 under the Intermediate sea level scenario, sea level rise is projected to be higher along the Atlantic versus the Pacific Coast and greatest along the western Gulf Coast.
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9.3: US Regional Average Flood Frequencies
US Regional Average Flood Frequencies
Minor, moderate, and major coastal flood frequencies will increase by a factor of about 5–10 in many regions of the US relative to 2020 in the absence of adaptation.
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9.4: Existing Conditions in a Coastal Community
Existing Conditions in a Coastal Community
Coastal landscapes and man-made interventions provide economic, cultural, and community protection from existing climate hazards under existing conditions.
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9.5: Increasing Hazards in a Coastal Community
Increasing Hazards in a Coastal Community
Coastal communities are expected to flood due to rising sea levels and rising groundwater levels.
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9.6: Adaptation Strategies for a Coastal Community
Adaptation Strategies for a Coastal Community
Timely implementation of adaptation strategies, including planned relocation, can reduce the impacts of climate change on coastal communities.
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9.7: Present and Future State of the Ohio Creek Watershed
Present and Future State of the Ohio Creek Watershed
Strategies that consider long-term community goals and inclusive and sustained engagement with frontline communities can lead to equitable transformative adaptation.
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Chapter 10: Ocean Ecosystems and Marine Resources
10.1: Ocean-Related Climate Impacts on People and Ecosystems
Ocean-Related Climate Impacts on People and Ecosystems
Many broad-scale climate-related ecological and human impacts are occurring in US marine areas.
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10.2: Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Impacts
Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Impacts
The West Coast has experienced unprecedented warm ocean temperatures and environmental disruptions from marine heatwaves.
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10.3: Ocean-Based Economies
Ocean-Based Economies
Communities throughout coastal America rely on ocean-related industries for major shares of their local economies.
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10.4: Ocean-Related Climate Adaptation Strategies
Ocean-Related Climate Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation can occur at many organizational scales—from individuals to governance systems.
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10.5: Ocean Conditions and Activities Under Two Climate Scenarios
Ocean Conditions and Activities Under Two Climate Scenarios
Future ocean conditions and activities will depend on emissions levels and mitigation strategies.
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Chapter 11: Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities
11.1: Farmworker Exposure to Extreme Heat and Smoke
Farmworker Exposure to Extreme Heat and Smoke
Climate change increases farmworker exposure to extreme heat and wildfire smoke.
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11.2: Ecosystem Services: Hub of the Wheel
Ecosystem Services: Hub of the Wheel
Ecosystem services have wide-ranging benefits for plants, animals, and human well-being.
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11.3: Projected Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones
Projected Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones
Plant hardiness zones are projected to shift northward throughout this century.
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11.4: Soil as a Foundation
Soil as a Foundation
Healthy soil plays a foundational role in agriculture, ecosystems, society, and culture.
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11.5: Agroecology Approaches and Outcomes
Agroecology Approaches and Outcomes
Agroecological approaches seek to achieve beneficial agricultural outcomes while promoting ecosystem services and rural livelihoods.
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11.6: US Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions Indices, 1990 to 2020
US Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions Indices, 1990 to 2020
While total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, emissions per capita and per unit of total factor productivity (a ratio of agricultural outputs produced to inputs used) have declined over the last 30 years.
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11.7: Cattle-Based Methane Emissions
Cattle-Based Methane Emissions
Ruminant livestock systems contribute to US methane emissions primarily through belching.
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11.8: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Protein Production
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Protein Production
Greenhouse gas emissions from protein production vary greatly according to food type.
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11.9: Connections Between Climate, Food, Ecosystem, and Socioeconomic Systems
Connections Between Climate, Food, Ecosystem, and Socioeconomic Systems
Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems.
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11.10: Example Effects of Climate Change on the Food Supply Chain
Example Effects of Climate Change on the Food Supply Chain
Climate change has cascading and compounding effects on all stages of the food supply chain.
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11.11: Examples of Food System Failure Due to Climate Change
Examples of Food System Failure Due to Climate Change
Climate change is expected to increase risks to food security in multiple ways.
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11.12: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Food Supply Chain Stage
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Food Supply Chain Stage
Greenhouse gas emissions differ by stage of the food supply chain.
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11.13: Community Resilience Index
Community Resilience Index
Rural communities differ in the categories of the Baseline Resilience Indicators that contribute most substantially to their resilience.
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11.14: Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities
Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities
Rural community resilience to natural hazards is measured by several broad categories of indicators that affect aspects of resilience (both positively and negatively).
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Chapter 12: Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities
12.1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by US County and Affiliated Territories
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by US County and Affiliated Territories
Urban and suburban areas contribute the majority of total greenhouse gas emissions through their consumption and populations.
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12.2: Urban and Rural Population Trends
Urban and Rural Population Trends
Urban areas constitute a significant majority of the total US population in all future scenarios.
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12.3: Examples of Built Environment Types Found in US Cities
Examples of Built Environment Types Found in US Cities
Cities across the US include multiple types of built environments, ranging from dense urban cores to much less dense suburbs.
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12.4: Effects of the Built Environment on Local Temperatures
Effects of the Built Environment on Local Temperatures
Different aspects of the built environment affect temperatures in urban areas.
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12.5: The Urban Heat Island Effect
The Urban Heat Island Effect
Urban heat islands are most prominent in dense downtown areas with little access to open space.
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12.6: Land Surface Temperature and Its Relationship to Median Household Income for Three Cities
Land Surface Temperature and Its Relationship to Median Household Income for Three Cities
Lower-income urban neighborhoods experience higher surface temperatures.
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12.7: Natural Infrastructure in Cities
Natural Infrastructure in Cities
Natural infrastructure in cities provides climate mitigation and adaptation benefits.
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12.8: Green, Blue, and Nature-Based Solutions
Green, Blue, and Nature-Based Solutions
Cities have diverse options for climate adaptation and mitigation.
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12.9: Social, Ecological, and Technological Components of Infrastructure
Social, Ecological, and Technological Components of Infrastructure
Urban infrastructure involves joint social, ecological, and technological systems. All face risks from climate change individually and in interconnected ways.
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Chapter 13: Transportation
13.1: 2021 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from US Domestic Transportation by Mode
2021 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from US Domestic Transportation by Mode
Transportation remains the largest source of emissions in the US, with cars and light-duty trucks as the largest contributors.
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13.2: Transportation Future
Transportation Future
A shifting transportation landscape, and how we respond to it, will determine future climate outcomes.
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13.3: Resilience Planning Cycle
Resilience Planning Cycle
Improving transportation resilience requires an iterative approach.
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13.4: Co-benefits of Mitigation and Resilience
Co-benefits of Mitigation and Resilience
Decarbonizing transportation could save money and improve air quality, social equity, and the health of people and ecosystems.
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13.5: Considerations of Equitable Climate Adaptation and GHG Mitigation from Transportation Systems
Considerations of Equitable Climate Adaptation and GHG Mitigation from Transportation Systems
Reducing emissions involves trade-offs that have implications for reliability, equity, and environmental quality.
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Chapter 14: Air Quality
14.1: Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter PM2.5 over the United States
Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter PM<sub>2.5</sub> over the United States
Climate change will have varying effects on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, including through impacts on weather-sensitive emissions.
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14.2: Simulated Historical and Projected Changes in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and Ozone
Simulated Historical and Projected Changes in Fine Particulate Matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and Ozone
Reductions in human-caused emissions that contribute to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are expected to improve air quality in a changing climate.
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14.3: Impacts of Wildfire Smoke on Air Quality
Impacts of Wildfire Smoke on Air Quality
Wildfire smoke affects air quality across the country.
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14.4: Air Pollution Exposure at Home in the Houston Ship Channel Region
Air Pollution Exposure at Home in the Houston Ship Channel Region
Industries expose people living near the Ship Channel—often African American, Latino, and low-income residents—to harmful air pollution.
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14.5: Air Pollution and Temperature Inequalities in Houston, Texas
Air Pollution and Temperature Inequalities in Houston, Texas
Air pollution, its health impacts, and temperatures are unequally distributed across Houston, Texas.
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14.6: Observed and Projected Pollen Changes Under Climate Change
Observed and Projected Pollen Changes Under Climate Change
Pollen has been increasing in many US regions and is projected to continue to increase as climate changes.
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14.7: Potential for Emissions-Reduction Actions to Achieve Air Quality and Climate Benefits
Potential for Emissions-Reduction Actions to Achieve Air Quality and Climate Benefits
Many emissions-reduction actions can achieve multiple benefits for climate, air quality, and health.
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14.8: Air Quality and Health Benefits Estimates in the US, Relative to Costs
Air Quality and Health Benefits Estimates in the US, Relative to Costs
Air quality health benefits alone exceed or significantly offset the costs of greenhouse gas reductions.
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Chapter 15: Human Health
15.1: Heat and Health Equity
Heat and Health Equity
Heat does not impact all communities equally.
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15.2: Regional Examples of Climate-Sensitive Infectious Diseases
Regional Examples of Climate-Sensitive Infectious Diseases
Some climate-sensitive infectious diseases are expected to see expanded geographic range and extended seasonality.
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15.3: Children’s Mental Health
Children’s Mental Health
Out of 1,000 children and young people surveyed in the US, a majority expressed worry about climate change impacts to people and the planet.
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15.4: Intergenerational Inequity
Intergenerational Inequity
The number of climate hazards a person born in North America will experience during their lifetime depends on how much Earth warms above preindustrial levels
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15.5: Social Vulnerability and Climate Hazards
Social Vulnerability and Climate Hazards
Some highly vulnerable areas also have high economic losses from climate hazards.
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15.6: Indigenous-Led Disaster Recovery Actions and Improved Health Outcomes
Indigenous-Led Disaster Recovery Actions and Improved Health Outcomes
Louisiana Tribal leaders are upholding sovereignty and self-determination in their climate adaptation actions following hurricane damage.
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Chapter 16: Tribes and Indigenous Peoples
16.1: Representative Locations of Indigenous Peoples
Representative Locations of Indigenous Peoples
Homelands of Indigenous Peoples are located throughout the US and its territories.
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16.2: The Complexity of Land Tenure for Indigenous People
The Complexity of Land Tenure for Indigenous People
Federally Recognized Tribal Lands are often near federal lands, where Indigenous Peoples may have consultation, treaty, or comanagement rights.
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16.3: Indigenous Holistic Worldview
Indigenous Holistic Worldview
Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change.
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16.4: Tribal Renewable Energy Projects
Tribal Renewable Energy Projects
The breadth of project type and funding amounts have increased for federally funded renewable energy projects.
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16.5: Publicly Available Climate Data in Relation to Indigenous Territories
Publicly Available Climate Data in Relation to Indigenous Territories
Some tribal lands are vulnerable to floods, wildfire, and drought.
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16.6: Indigenous Ingenuity the Hopi Way
Indigenous Ingenuity the Hopi Way
Actions on climate change taken by the Hopi people engage science, tradition, and education.
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16.7: Tsha’ Thoñswatha’ Firehouse and Community Hall
Tsha’ Thoñswatha’ Firehouse and Community Hall
The Tsha’ Thoñswatha’ firehouse and community hall in the Onondaga Nation relies on renewable energy and meets a net-zero standard of energy use.
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16.8: Climate initiatives at College of Menominee Nation
Climate initiatives at College of Menominee Nation
At the College of Menominee Nation, Indigenous Knowledge guides climate change response.
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Chapter 17: Climate Effects on US International Interests
17.1: Interconnected Interests and Cascading Impacts
Interconnected Interests and Cascading Impacts
Future impacts to US interests are uncertain given complex system interdependencies and interactions between stressors, capacities, and responses.
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17.2: US Net Import Reliance by Region for Minerals Necessary for Renewable Energy Technology
US Net Import Reliance by Region for Minerals Necessary for Renewable Energy Technology
US renewable energy technologies rely on imports of critical minerals from around the world.
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17.3: Climate-Related Disasters and Economic Losses
Climate-Related Disasters and Economic Losses
This figure shows global trends in the number, growing costs, and increasing diversity of types of climate-related natural disasters since 2000.
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17.4: Climate Finance
Climate Finance
Public and private contributions to global climate finance are increasing but not at the pace necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
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17.5: Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates in 2050
Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates in 2050
Climate change will exacerbate global inequalities in mortality rates.
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Chapter 18: Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems
18.1: Interacting and Overlapping Features of Human–Natural Systems
Interacting and Overlapping Features of Human–Natural Systems
Climate-related experiences and actions connect with many other activities and contexts.
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18.2: Intersectional Vulnerabilities
Intersectional Vulnerabilities
Intersecting social and environmental factors privilege some people’s ability to respond to climate change.
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18.3: Interacting Climate Responses and Knowledges Across Scales
Interacting Climate Responses and Knowledges Across Scales
Climate responses, ranging from the individual to global scale, interact with and draw from diverse knowledges.
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18.4: Governance of Complex Systems
Governance of Complex Systems
Governing complex systems involves pathways of decision-making across time.
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Chapter 19: Economics
19.1: Example Projected US Economic Damages for 3°F of Global Warming
Example Projected US Economic Damages for 3°F of Global Warming
Projected economic impacts of climate change vary by sector and region, with aggregate impacts resulting in net damages nationally.
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19.2: Climate Damages by Income, Age, Access to Credit, and Race and Ethnicity
Climate Damages by Income, Age, Access to Credit, and Race and Ethnicity
The effects of weather and climate change are often experienced differently by populations according to income, age, access to credit, and race and ethnicity.
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19.3: How Climate Hazards Impact Real Estate Prices
How Climate Hazards Impact Real Estate Prices
Exposure to climate hazards has a negative effect on real estate values.
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19.4: Fiscal Risks of Climate Change
Fiscal Risks of Climate Change
Climate change puts pressure on public budgets.
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19.5: The Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
The Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
The social cost of greenhouse gases is a monetary estimate of the total economic impact of an additional greenhouse gas emission today.
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Chapter 20: Social Systems and Justice
20.1: Three Dimensions of Environmental Justice
Three Dimensions of Environmental Justice
Environmental justice requires three dimensions: recognitional, distributional, and procedural justice.
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20.2: Climate Change Governance
Climate Change Governance
Climate change governance is complex and multifaceted.
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20.3: Coproduction in Research
Coproduction in Research
Coproduction is a way forward to include multiple epistemologies, or knowledge traditions, but must be defined to be productive.
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20.4: Successful Climate Engagement
Successful Climate Engagement
A simple three-step process of communication can improve climate change engagement with diverse stakeholders.
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20.5: Migration and Governance
Migration and Governance
Social systems create just or unjust conditions that influence migration outcomes.
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20.6: Relocation and Tribal Sovereignty
Relocation and Tribal Sovereignty
Quinault Indian Nation engaged the full community in its village relocation plan.
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Chapter 21: Northeast
21.1: Trends in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast
Trends in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast
The number of days in the Northeast with extreme precipitation has increased.
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21.2: Examples of State and Local Responses to Extreme Weather
Examples of State and Local Responses to Extreme Weather
Northeastern states and cities have adopted a range of plans, programs, and policies in response to extreme weather, many of which include nature-based strategies.
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21.3: Northeast US Newspaper Mentions of Extreme Weather and Nature-Based Solutions
Northeast US Newspaper Mentions of Extreme Weather and Nature-Based Solutions
Mentions of extreme weather events and nature-based solutions are increasing across Northeast media.
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21.4: Ocean Temperatures and Marine Heatwaves
Ocean Temperatures and Marine Heatwaves
Oceans are growing warmer and marine heatwaves are more frequent, which is impacting marine ecosystems in the Northeast.
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21.5: Past (1985), Present (2015), and Future (2050) of the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem
Past (1985), Present (2015), and Future (2050) of the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem
Shifts in the abundance and composition of species in the Gulf of Maine are expected to continue with additional warming.
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21.6: Changing Distribution of Fishery Resources in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
Changing Distribution of Fishery Resources in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
The distribution and abundance of American lobster are expected to decrease by midcentury.
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21.7: Projected Changes in Coastal Forests
Projected Changes in Coastal Forests
Rising sea levels kill trees and transform coastal forests into marshes, damaging vital ecosystems and the services they provide to the community.
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21.8: Summer Temperature Differences by Neighborhood in the Bronx, New York
Summer Temperature Differences by Neighborhood in the Bronx, New York
Average summer temperatures are generally higher in historically redlined neighborhoods in the Bronx, New York.
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21.9: Flood Insurance Take-Up Rates by County
Flood Insurance Take-Up Rates by County
Many Northeast households and communities risk financial hardship from a lack of flood insurance coverage.
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21.10: Public Funding for Resilience
Public Funding for Resilience
Northeastern states provide funding for resilience efforts in a number of ways.
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Chapter 22: Southeast
22.1: Population Change in the Southeast
Population Change in the Southeast
Population change in the Southeast exposes more people to climate threats along the coast and in cities while leaving rural areas with limited capacity.
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22.2: Land-Cover Change and Biodiversity
Land-Cover Change and Biodiversity
Land cover change and sprawling development threaten unprotected biodiversity hotspots in the Southeast.
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22.3: Billion-Dollar Disasters and Hurricanes in the Southeast
Billion-Dollar Disasters and Hurricanes in the Southeast
The Southeast frequently experiences costly weather-related disasters, which are worsened by climate change.
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22.4: Current and Projected Risks to Homes
Current and Projected Risks to Homes
Vulnerable homes in the Southeast will face increasing climate threats in the future.
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22.5: Sea Level Rise and Flooding in the Southeast
Sea Level Rise and Flooding in the Southeast
Major flood events in Jacksonville, Florida, could become about 5 times more likely by 2050 under an Intermediate-High sea level rise scenario.
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22.6: Climate-Resilient Neighborhood Design
Climate-Resilient Neighborhood Design
Climate-resilient community design can ensure the long-term vitality of cities.
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22.7: Climate Resilience in the Southeast
Climate Resilience in the Southeast
Southeast communities are adapting to climate threats in a number of ways.
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22.8: Present-Day Health Inequities
Present-Day Health Inequities
Present-day health inequities in the Southeast exacerbate climate-related risks.
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22.9: Inequitable Heat Burden and Future Heat Exposure
Inequitable Heat Burden and Future Heat Exposure
Projected increases in heat extremes disproportionately affect communities of color and other energy-burdened groups.
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22.10: Blackouts Affecting More than 1,000 Residents for More than 1 Hour
Blackouts Affecting More than 1,000 Residents for More than 1 Hour
Warm-season blackouts add to heat-related risks for residents in Southeast.
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22.11: Current PM2.5 Levels and Projected Change in Deaths due to PM2.5 at 2°C of Global Warming
Current PM<sub>2.5</sub> Levels and Projected Change in Deaths due to PM<sub>2.5</sub> at 2°C of Global Warming
Rising levels of air pollution from a warming climate pose profound threats to human health.
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22.12: Household Income and Rural Capacity for Action
Household Income and Rural Capacity for Action
Counties where low-income households overlap with limited community capacity (shown in light gray) highlight rural climate risk challenges.
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22.13: Projected Annual Economic Damages from Unmitigated Climate Change
Projected Annual Economic Damages from Unmitigated Climate Change
The Southeast region faces substantial economic risks from climate change impacts.
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22.14: Regional Impacts of Extreme Weather Events
Regional Impacts of Extreme Weather Events
The Southeast is impacted by a wide variety of extreme weather events.
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22.15: Proactive Adaptation Offsets Future Transportation Infrastructure Costs
Proactive Adaptation Offsets Future Transportation Infrastructure Costs
Proactive adaptation to climate change could save millions of dollars in future transportation infrastructure costs.
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22.16: Expected Impacts of an Unplanned Calcasieu Navigation Lock Closure
Expected Impacts of an Unplanned Calcasieu Navigation Lock Closure
An unplanned closure of the Calcasieu Navigation Lock would have impacts that extend well beyond the Southeast.
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22.17: Projected Annual Energy Infrastructure Costs
Projected Annual Energy Infrastructure Costs
Proactively investing in strengthening our electrical infrastructure offsets significant future costs due to climate change damage.
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22.18: Droughts and Black Farmers in the Southeast
Droughts and Black Farmers in the Southeast
The Southeast’s Black farmers face disproportionate weather and climate risks.
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22.19: Projected Changes in Agricultural Yields Under Unmitigated Climate Change
Projected Changes in Agricultural Yields Under Unmitigated Climate Change
Agricultural yields are expected to decrease under very high warming.
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22.20: Rivercane in North America
Rivercane in North America
Rivercane, a native bamboo, is culturally important to many Tribes in the Southeast.
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Chapter 23: US Caribbean
23.1: The US Caribbean
The US Caribbean
The US Caribbean region in the Fifth National Climate Assessment consists of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
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23.2: Temperature and Rainfall in Puerto Rico
Temperature and Rainfall in Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is projected to become warmer and drier, with increasing uncertainty in the magnitude of change beyond midcentury; just how warm and dry depends on the scenario followed.
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23.3: The One Health Approach
The One Health Approach
In the face of climate change, the health of Caribbean people, plants, animals, and ecosystems depends on coordination across multiple scales and boundaries.
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23.4: Climate Change and Public Health
Climate Change and Public Health
Public health is shaped by sociocultural factors and further affected by climate change.
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23.5: Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
Excess mortality from Hurricane Maria was most common among Puerto Rico’s most impoverished residents.
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23.6: Annual Expected Benefits from Coral Reefs in the US Caribbean
Annual Expected Benefits from Coral Reefs in the US Caribbean
Coral reefs provide substantial coastal protection benefits to the US Caribbean each year.
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23.7: Ecosystem Stressors
Ecosystem Stressors
Both climate and non-climate stressors affect aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity in the US Caribbean.
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23.8: Climate Impacts on Food and Water Systems from Ridge to Reef
Climate Impacts on Food and Water Systems from Ridge to Reef
Risks to food and water systems differ under wet and dry scenarios.
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23.9: Food and Water Systems
Food and Water Systems
Cascading impacts of climate change affect food and water systems and security.
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23.10: Infrastructure at Risk of Flooding in the US Virgin Islands
Infrastructure at Risk of Flooding in the US Virgin Islands
Many types of facilities in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are threatened by storm-induced flooding.
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23.11: Decentralizing Infrastructure and Governance
Decentralizing Infrastructure and Governance
Strengthening the resilience of infrastructure will require a transition to decentralized systems as well as decentralized modes of governance.
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23.12: Status of Adaptation Action
Status of Adaptation Action
Adaptation action in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands reflects different starting times and available capacity.
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Chapter 24: Midwest
24.1: Change in Frequency of Transitions Between 1-Month Precipitation Extremes
Change in Frequency of Transitions Between 1-Month Precipitation Extremes
The frequency of wet–dry and dry-wet transitions across the Midwest is projected to increase by late century (2071–2100).
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24.2: Freeze-Damaged Apple Blossoms
Freeze-Damaged Apple Blossoms
Early warmth and flowering followed by freezing temperatures in the spring poses risks to perennial and annual crops.
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24.3: Trends in Last Freeze Dates for Spring
Trends in Last Freeze Dates for Spring
Last spring freezes are occurring earlier over most of the Midwest region.
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24.4: Environmental Impacts from Conventional Versus Climate-Smart Practices
Environmental Impacts from Conventional Versus Climate-Smart Practices
Climate-smart agricultural strategies may have adaptation and mitigation advantages that balance agricultural needs and environmental impacts.
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24.5: Extreme Precipitation Impacts
Extreme Precipitation Impacts
Extreme precipitation events have adverse impacts on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, human health, infrastructure, and economies. Conservation and management strategies can help moderate these impacts.
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24.6: Ecological Services of Ice-Covered Inland Waters
Ecological Services of Ice-Covered Inland Waters
Rising winter temperatures are decreasing inland lake ice cover and the associated ecosystem services, benefits, and activities it provides.
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24.7: Impacts from Wildfire Smoke in the Midwest
Impacts from Wildfire Smoke in the Midwest
Wildfire smoke from both local and distant sources threatens human health.
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24.8: Midwest Region Lyme Disease Case Counts by State (2000–2019)
Midwest Region Lyme Disease Case Counts by State (2000–2019)
Lyme disease incidence has increased across the Midwest.
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24.9: Beneficial Use Wetland Creation for Healthy Ports
Beneficial Use Wetland Creation for Healthy Ports
Innovative design of coastal infrastructure, such as the Ashtabula Port, allows the built environment to deliver social and environmental services.
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24.10: Climate Change–Related Factors in Dam Failure
Climate Change–Related Factors in Dam Failure
Climate change–related factors contribute to dam failure, with cascading impacts on the built environment.
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24.11: Projected Changes in Cumulative Seasonal and Annual Local Runoff
Projected Changes in Cumulative Seasonal and Annual Local Runoff
Projected changes in cumulative local runoff will lead to increased flooding susceptibility in winter and spring, with increased flash drought potential in summer.
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24.12: Map of US Aquifers
Map of US Aquifers
Vulnerability to disruptions in water quality and quantity varies by location, depending on the primary source of water for drinking and other uses.
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24.13: Great Lakes Summer Surface Water Temperature Trends
Great Lakes Summer Surface Water Temperature Trends
Summer surface water temperatures have been increasing for Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie since the late 1970s.
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Chapter 25: Northern Great Plains
25.1: Tribal Lands and Rurality Measures
Tribal Lands and Rurality Measures
Rural areas, including those controlled by Indigenous Peoples, are often under-resourced and therefore less resilient to climate change.
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25.2: Annual Precipitation for the Northern Great Plains
Annual Precipitation for the Northern Great Plains
The region has distinct east–west precipitation gradients.
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25.3: Temperature for the Northern Great Plains
Temperature for the Northern Great Plains
Distinctive gradients of temperature will hold with projected warming.
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25.4: Water Resource Regions and Rivers
Water Resource Regions and Rivers
Annual peak streamflow—a proxy for flooding—has been rising in eastern portions of the region and declining in the west.
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25.5: Observed and Projected Potential Evapotranspiration
Observed and Projected Potential Evapotranspiration
Warming is expected to increase evapotranspiration.
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25.6: Observed and Projected Soil Moisture
Observed and Projected Soil Moisture
Warming may not always lead to declines in soil moisture that would cause water stress in crops and natural plants.
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25.7: Invasive Species as Bioindicators of Ecological Condition
Invasive Species as Bioindicators of Ecological Condition
Invasive cool-season grasses are reducing biodiversity in the Northern Great Plains.
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25.8: Geography of Land Use and Social Vulnerability
Geography of Land Use and Social Vulnerability
The Northern Great Plains region shows wide geographical variations in land use and social vulnerability.
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25.9: Land-Use Conversion as a Strategy for Climate Adaptation
Land-Use Conversion as a Strategy for Climate Adaptation
Land-use conversion offers one strategy for adapting to climate change.
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25.10: Marginal Farmland Planted to Switchgrass
Marginal Farmland Planted to Switchgrass
Conversion of cropland to production of biofuels such as switchgrass is being piloted in the region as a climate adaptation action.
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25.11: Pattern Field Tiling
Pattern Field Tiling
Draining agricultural fields through tiling improves crop yields but can harm ecosystems.
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25.12: Adaptation Planning
Adaptation Planning
Scenario-based planning accounts for uncertainty by considering a range of ways in which change might occur.
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Chapter 26: Southern Great Plains
26.1: Annual Number of Days with Precipitation of 2 Inches or More (1900–2021)
Annual Number of Days with Precipitation of 2 Inches or More (1900–2021)
The frequency of days with precipitation of 2 inches or more has increased across the Southern Great Plains.
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26.2: Historical and Projected Changes in Air Temperature (1900–2100)
Historical and Projected Changes in Air Temperature (1900–2100)
Air temperatures for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are projected to be historically unprecedented by the end of the century.
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26.3: Compounding Damages in Houston, Texas, from a Hurricane, Cold Outbreak, and Pandemic
Compounding Damages in Houston, Texas, from a Hurricane, Cold Outbreak, and Pandemic
Damages from compounding events—a hurricane, cold outbreak, and pandemic—disproportionately impacted socially vulnerable populations in Houston, Texas.
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26.4: Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of More Frequent or Severe Droughts on Communities
Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of More Frequent or Severe Droughts on Communities
Resilience actions can help alleviate harmful consequences to communities of more frequent or severe drought.
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26.5: Methane Across the Permian Basin (May 2018–March 2019)
Methane Across the Permian Basin (May 2018–March 2019)
Natural gas operations in the Permian Basin leak large amounts of methane.
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26.6: Net Generation of Electricity from Wind (2001–2022)
Net Generation of Electricity from Wind (2001–2022)
The Southern Great Plains contributes a large share to total US wind-generated electricity.
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26.7: Power Generation Outages During the Cold Outbreak in February 2021
Power Generation Outages During the Cold Outbreak in February 2021
A severe cold outbreak in February 2021 led to extensive outages for electricity generation plants serving the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
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26.8: Income and Racial/Ethnic Disparities Related to Power Outages in Texas, February 2021
Income and Racial/Ethnic Disparities Related to Power Outages in Texas, February 2021
Regardless of income level, non-White populations experienced a disproportionate share of outages during the February 2021 cold outbreak.
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26.9: Projected Change in Annual Risk of Late False-Spring Events
Projected Change in Annual Risk of Late False-Spring Events
The risk of plant bud burst before the last freeze is projected to increase for the northern portion of the Southern Great Plains. The risk decreases for the southern portion of the region.
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26.10: Projected Change in Total Annual Precipitation
Projected Change in Total Annual Precipitation
Slightly drier conditions are projected for much of the western and southern portions of the region by the end of the century.
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26.11: Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Heavier Rainfall Events on Businesses
Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Heavier Rainfall Events on Businesses
Resilience actions can help businesses and industries reduce the negative consequences of more heavy rainfall events.
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26.12: Climate Change Impacts on Outdoor Activities
Climate Change Impacts on Outdoor Activities
Climate change is expected to affect many outdoor sports, recreational, and leisure activities.
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26.13: Projected Change in Annual Number of Days of 100°F or Higher
Projected Change in Annual Number of Days of 100°F or Higher
The number of extreme-heat days is projected to increase.
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26.14: Extreme Event Impacts on Sports and Recreation
Extreme Event Impacts on Sports and Recreation
Outdoor sports and recreation of all kinds are challenged by extreme events.
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26.15: Flooding of Park in Kansas, Spring 2019
Flooding of Park in Kansas, Spring 2019
Historic spring flooding in 2019 closed parks and recreational areas in southeastern Kansas.
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26.16: Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Hotter Summer Temperatures on Outdoor Activities
Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Hotter Summer Temperatures on Outdoor Activities
Resilience actions can alleviate the effects of hotter temperatures on outdoor activities.
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26.17: Increased Climate Risks in Port Arthur, Texas
Increased Climate Risks in Port Arthur, Texas
Historically underserved communities near chemical facilities face increased risks from weather hazards associated with climate change.
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26.18: Collaboration to Develop Tribal Climate Adaptation Plans
Collaboration to Develop Tribal Climate Adaptation Plans
Nine Tribes of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa work together to create customized climate action plans for their individual communities.
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26.19: Resilience Actions to Address Equity and Justice Issues Related to Increasing Hurricane Risk
Resilience Actions to Address Equity and Justice Issues Related to Increasing Hurricane Risk
Resilience actions centered on justice and equity can help overburdened communities respond to increasing hurricane risks.
View in Chapter Download
26.20: Extreme Rainfall Impacts on Transportation
Extreme Rainfall Impacts on Transportation
Heavy downpours associated with Hurricane Harvey (2017) caused bridge damage.
View in Chapter Download
26.21: Mitigation and Adaptation Actions Across the Southern Great Plains
Mitigation and Adaptation Actions Across the Southern Great Plains
A wide array of actions are being conducted across the region to address the impacts of climate change.
View in Chapter Download
26.22: Water Treatment Plant in Norman, Oklahoma
Water Treatment Plant in Norman, Oklahoma
Wastewater treatment services in the region are addressing water resource challenges.
View in Chapter Download
26.23: Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Severe Winter Storms on Public Services
Resilience Actions to Address the Impacts of Severe Winter Storms on Public Services
Resilience actions can reduce risks to public services caused by increasingly variable severe winter storms.
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Chapter 27: Northwest
27.1: Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation in the Northwest
Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation in the Northwest
Extreme precipitation days are closely associated with atmospheric rivers, which are projected to be more frequent and intense and to reach farther inland.
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27.2: Redlining and Extreme Heat in Portland, Oregon
Redlining and Extreme Heat in Portland, Oregon
Economically and racially segregated urban communities are inequitably exposed to climate change impacts, including extreme heat.
View in Chapter Download
27.3: Climate-Related Impacts and Extreme Events to Northwest Ecosystems
Climate-Related Impacts and Extreme Events to Northwest Ecosystems
Long-term climate changes and extreme events threaten Northwest ecosystems.
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27.4: Interacting Stressors Affect Salmon Resilience
Interacting Stressors Affect Salmon Resilience
Stressors stemming from interactions between human activities and natural systems affect freshwater and marine ecosystems and reduce salmon resilience to climate change.
View in Chapter Download
27.5: Agricultural Losses Through Crop Insurance Indemnity Payments
Agricultural Losses Through Crop Insurance Indemnity Payments
Increasing trends in crop insurance loss payments reflect the economic disruption of agricultural production due to extreme events including droughts.
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27.6: Annual Cooling Degree Days Relative to Annual Hydropower Generation
Annual Cooling Degree Days Relative to Annual Hydropower Generation
Hydropower generation is currently meeting the number of cooling degree days but might not continue to do so as temperatures and heatwaves increase in the future.
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27.7: Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels by State and Sector
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels by State and Sector
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption vary widely by sector and state.
View in Chapter Download
27.8: Heat-Related Emergency Room Visits for Health and Human Services (HHS) Region 10
Heat-Related Emergency Room Visits for Health and Human Services (HHS) Region 10
Heatwaves, such as the heat dome event in the summer of 2021, place strains on healthcare systems.
View in Chapter Download
27.9: Projected Asthma Burden per Wildfire Season in 2050
Projected Asthma Burden per Wildfire Season in 2050
Excess asthma burden associated with wildfire smoke is expected to disproportionately affect the Northwest.
View in Chapter Download
27.10: Heritage, Sense of Place, and Amenities at Risk
Heritage, Sense of Place, and Amenities at Risk
The heritage of the Northwest is intertwined with the diversity of landscapes, economies, and quality of life.
View in Chapter Download
27.11: Growth in Wildland–Urban Interface (1990–2020)
Growth in Wildland–Urban Interface (1990–2020)
The growth of homes in the wildland–urban interface puts an increasing number of people at risk of wildfire and flooding.
View in Chapter Download
Chapter 28: Southwest
28.1: Climate Change Indicators, Impacts, and Responses in the Southwest
Climate Change Indicators, Impacts, and Responses in the Southwest
Indicators highlight important climate impacts and adaptation and mitigation efforts.
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28.2: Projected Changes in Soil Moisture, Snow Water Equivalent, and Runoff
Projected Changes in Soil Moisture, Snow Water Equivalent, and Runoff
Climate change is projected to reduce snow water equivalent and alter trends in soil moisture and annual runoff.
View in Chapter Download
28.3: Satellite Images of Lake Mead
Satellite Images of Lake Mead
Lake Mead water levels have declined, with potential water supply implications for millions of people.
View in Chapter Download
28.4: California Marine Heatwaves
California Marine Heatwaves
Pacific marine heatwaves have had coast-wide impacts on ecosystems and fisheries.
View in Chapter Download
28.5: Sea Level Rise Risks to Infrastructure and Communities
Sea Level Rise Risks to Infrastructure and Communities
Flooding from sea level rise is expected to affect transportation infrastructure and communities along the California coast, with disproportionate impacts on lower-income communities.
View in Chapter Download
28.6: Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southwest US
Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southwest US
Monitoring indicators of climate impacts on agriculture can improve understanding and help with adaptation efforts.
View in Chapter Download
28.7: Heat Impacts in the Southwest
Heat Impacts in the Southwest
With extreme heat events expected to increase in frequency and severity, the ability to perform work outside is projected to decline across parts of the Southwest.
View in Chapter Download
28.8: Community Resilience Estimates for the Southwest
Community Resilience Estimates for the Southwest
Communities with higher socioeconomic risk factors are expected to be less resilient in the event of climate and weather disasters.
View in Chapter Download
28.9: Wildfire and Vegetation Change in the Southwest
Wildfire and Vegetation Change in the Southwest
Climate change is leading to larger and hotter fires and resulting in shifts in vegetation.
View in Chapter Download
Chapter 29: Alaska
29.1: Recent Climate-Driven Extremes and Notable Events
Recent Climate-Driven Extremes and Notable Events
Climate-driven extreme events continue throughout Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.2: The Context of Climate Change Response
The Context of Climate Change Response
The response to climate change depends on the desired societal outcome and is shaped by existing societal and environmental conditions.
View in Chapter Download
29.3: Climate, Health, and Well-Being in Communities
Climate, Health, and Well-Being in Communities
The impacts of climate change on health and well-being depend on many social and environmental factors.
View in Chapter Download
29.4: Gladys I’yiiqpak Pungowiyi
Gladys I’yiiqpak Pungowiyi
Strong connections between individuals and communities are vital in rural Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.5: Racial and Geographic Distribution of Alaska’s Population
Racial and Geographic Distribution of Alaska’s Population
The racial makeup and population density of Alaska's communities vary greatly by region, creating the potential for varied exposures and disparate impacts across subpopulations
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29.6: Cross-Section of Snowpack After the December 2021 Storm
Cross-Section of Snowpack After the December 2021 Storm
A rain-on-snow event in December 2021 blocked roads and caused other damages.
View in Chapter Download
29.7: Climate-Sensitive Employment in Alaska
Climate-Sensitive Employment in Alaska
Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging effects on key economic sectors in Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.8: Unloading Salmon Sent to Chignik in Response to the Fishery Disaster
Unloading Salmon Sent to Chignik in Response to the Fishery Disaster
Donations of salmon provided much-needed food to Chignik and other small communities.
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29.9: Coastal Erosion Rates and Processes in Alaska
Coastal Erosion Rates and Processes in Alaska
Coastal erosion is a major threat around Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.10: Pretty Rocks Landslide, Denali Park Road
Pretty Rocks Landslide, Denali Park Road
Thawing permafrost limited access to Denali National Park.
View in Chapter Download
29.11: Major Recent Ecological Changes
Major Recent Ecological Changes
Climate change has caused or contributed to extensive ecological effects throughout Alaska in recent years.
View in Chapter Download
29.12: Chinook Salmon Research
Chinook Salmon Research
Research on the effects of heat on salmon can help scientists understand the effects of continued warming.
View in Chapter Download
29.13: Climate Change Risks to Military Installations
Climate Change Risks to Military Installations
Climate change poses risks to military assets in Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.14: Canned Red Salmon in Port Heiden
Canned Red Salmon in Port Heiden
Salmon is vital for food security in much of Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.15: Climate Threats Across Alaska
Climate Threats Across Alaska
Statewide assessments show extensive climate-related threats throughout Alaska.
View in Chapter Download
29.16: Navigating Diverse Institutions to Meet Local and Regional Priorities
Navigating Diverse Institutions to Meet Local and Regional Priorities
Adaptation is a complex process, requiring expertise and engagement with multiple entities.
View in Chapter Download
29.17: Harvesting Kelp in Prince William Sound
Harvesting Kelp in Prince William Sound
Kelp farming is an adaptation action that can reduce the impacts of ocean acidification, take up carbon dioxide, and provide income.
View in Chapter Download
Chapter 30: Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
30.1: Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands span a vast geography.
View in Chapter Download
30.2: Detailed View of Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
Detailed View of Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
The Pacific Islands region contains a diversity of high and low islands.
View in Chapter Download
30.3: Projected Changes in Rainfall at 3°C (5.4°F) of Global Warming (Relative to 1985–2014)
Projected Changes in Rainfall at 3°C (5.4°F) of Global Warming (Relative to 1985–2014)
Rainfall is projected to increase across most of the region with 3°C (5.4°F) of global warming.
View in Chapter Download
30.4: Regional Sea Level Rise Projections
Regional Sea Level Rise Projections
Future sea levels strongly depend on the scenario, and rates will vary across the region.
View in Chapter Download
30.5: Climate Change Indicators and Impacts in the Pacific Islands
Climate Change Indicators and Impacts in the Pacific Islands
Monitoring key indicators of climate change is essential for understanding impacts and informing adaptation efforts.
View in Chapter Download
30.6: Traditional Cast Net Fishing
Traditional Cast Net Fishing
Species loss threatens the traditions, livelihoods, and resilience of Pacific Islanders.
View in Chapter Download
30.7: Key Agricultural Plants: Giant Swamp Taro
Key Agricultural Plants: Giant Swamp Taro
Programs aimed at supporting traditional crops help strengthen food security.
View in Chapter Download
30.8: Damage from Typhoon Yutu
Damage from Typhoon Yutu
Extreme events acutely affect Pacific Island communities and their built environment.
View in Chapter Download
30.9: Oʻahu Community Heat Assessment (August 31, 2019)
Oʻahu Community Heat Assessment (August 31, 2019)
High temperatures are responsible for heat-related illnesses, hospitalizations, and death.
View in Chapter Download
30.10: Coastal Flooding Events
Coastal Flooding Events
Sea level rise is increasingly impacting infrastructure and communities.
View in Chapter Download
30.11: Annual Risk Reduction Benefits Provided by Coral Reefs
Annual Risk Reduction Benefits Provided by Coral Reefs
Coral reef degradation could affect thousands of people and cause millions of dollars in damages.
View in Chapter Download
30.12: Characteristic Ecosystems of the Pacific Islands
Characteristic Ecosystems of the Pacific Islands
Pacific Island marine environments provide the foundation for local food systems and cultures.
View in Chapter Download
30.13: Wildfire Area Burned in the Pacific Islands Compared to the Western US
Wildfire Area Burned in the Pacific Islands Compared to the Western US
Wildfires burn large percentages of land in Pacific Islands compared to the western US.
View in Chapter Download
30.14: The Climate Urgency of Pacific Island Conservation
The Climate Urgency of Pacific Island Conservation
Conservation efforts across the region help to restore ecosystem health and protect native species.
View in Chapter Download
30.15: Restoring and Caring for Hawaiian Limu (Seaweed)
Restoring and Caring for Hawaiian Limu (Seaweed)
The resilience of Pacific Island communities is strengthened by their connection to place and all of its life-forms.
View in Chapter Download
30.16: Climate Change Impacts on Cultural Sites
Climate Change Impacts on Cultural Sites
Cultural sites, representing the living culture and ancestral knowledge of Indigenous Peoples, are at increasing risk.
View in Chapter Download
Chapter 31: Adaptation
31.1: Number of Publicly Documented Adaptation Activities (2018–2022)
Number of Publicly Documented Adaptation Activities (2018–2022)
The level of documented public- and private-sector adaptation activity varies widely across US states and territories.
View in Chapter Download
31.2: Adaptation Actions Defined by Multiple Factors
Adaptation Actions Defined by Multiple Factors
Adaptation outcomes are the result of individual and group values and decision-making processes and constraints.
View in Chapter Download
31.3: Incremental vs. Transformative Approaches
Incremental vs. Transformative Approaches
Incremental and transformative adaptation may take many forms, but incremental adaptation involves small changes while transformative adaptation involves profound shifts.
View in Chapter Download
31.4: Organizations and Actors Involved in Adaptation Governance
Organizations and Actors Involved in Adaptation Governance
Climate adaptation involves numerous actions by different actors at multiple jurisdictional scales.
View in Chapter Download
31.5: Estimated Annual Change in Costs Due to Climate Change
Estimated Annual Change in Costs Due to Climate Change
Future costs associated with climate change will depend on adaptation efforts and scenarios.
View in Chapter Download
Chapter 32: Mitigation
32.1: US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector with 2030 and 2050 Goals Added
US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector with 2030 and 2050 Goals Added
US emissions will need to decrease rapidly to reach levels consistent with international climate targets.
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32.2: Changes in Drivers for Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
Changes in Drivers for Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
US greenhouse gas emissions have dropped even as population and economic activity (as measured by GDP) have climbed.
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32.3: Trends in Electricity Generation by Source and Related CO2 Emissions
Trends in Electricity Generation by Source and Related CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation decreased by almost 40% between 2005 and 2020.
View in Chapter Download
32.4: Trends in Transportation Emissions and Underlying Drivers
Trends in Transportation Emissions and Underlying Drivers
Transportations emissions fell from 2007–2012 but have climbed since then.
View in Chapter Download
32.5: Trends in Residential- and Commercial-Building Emissions and Intensities
Trends in Residential- and Commercial-Building Emissions and Intensities
Overall greenhouse gas emissions from buildings have climbed despite small declines in CO2 emissions from onsite combustion of fossil fuels.
View in Chapter Download
32.6: Trends in Industry Emissions
Trends in Industry Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions from US industry, including manufacturing, have declined in recent decades.
View in Chapter Download
32.7: Trends in Land-Use Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Underlying Drivers
Trends in Land-Use Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Underlying Drivers
US forests sequester more carbon than is emitted by agriculture, but the forest sink has weakened in recent decades.
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32.8: Historical Trends in Costs and Capacity of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in the United States
Historical Trends in Costs and Capacity of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in the United States
Costs of renewable energy sources and electric vehicle batteries have declined as their cumulative deployment has increased.
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32.9: Historical and Projected Net-Zero Annual Capacity Additions by Technology for the US Under Net-Zero Scenarios
Historical and Projected Net-Zero Annual Capacity Additions by Technology for the US Under Net-Zero Scenarios
To reach net zero, the US will need to add more electricity-generating capacity in each of the next 30 years than we have added historically.
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32.10: Projected Coal and Solar/Wind Electricity Generation
Projected Coal and Solar/Wind Electricity Generation
Models project a steep decline in coal-generated electricity and increases in renewables.
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32.11: Characteristics of US Energy Systems in Climate Mitigation Scenarios
Characteristics of US Energy Systems in Climate Mitigation Scenarios
Net-zero model scenarios show large increases in electrical energy, accompanied by decarbonization of electricity sources and modest decreases in overall energy use per person.
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32.12: Emissions Reductions and Related Health Benefits from Dietary Shifts
Emissions Reductions and Related Health Benefits from Dietary Shifts
Changes in American diets could decrease US land-use greenhouse gas emissions, increase carbon sequestration, and reduce air pollution.
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32.13: Hydrogen Production by Source and End Uses in 2021 and 2050
Hydrogen Production by Source and End Uses in 2021 and 2050
Energy model scenarios show that the magnitude, sources, and uses of hydrogen will change substantially by 2050.
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32.14: Scale and Type of Carbon Dioxide Removal in US Net-Zero Emissions Scenarios
Scale and Type of Carbon Dioxide Removal in US Net-Zero Emissions Scenarios
Net-zero emissions scenarios project substantial carbon dioxide removal by 2050, although the type and quantities used in the scenarios vary considerably.
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32.15: Health Co-benefits of Strategic Power Plant Retirements
Health Co-benefits of Strategic Power Plant Retirements
Shutting down coal-fired power plants would produce both health and climate benefits.
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32.16: Land and Water Requirements of Energy Sources
Land and Water Requirements of Energy Sources
Different sources of energy entail more or less water and land use.
View in Chapter Download
32.17: Energy Employment from 2020 to 2050 for Alternative Net-Zero Pathways
Energy Employment from 2020 to 2050 for Alternative Net-Zero Pathways
A shift toward renewables is projected to increase the total number of jobs in the energy sector.
View in Chapter Download
32.18: Inequitable Air Quality Within Historically Redlined Neighborhoods
Inequitable Air Quality Within Historically Redlined Neighborhoods
Communities redlined in the 1930s experience more air pollution today.
View in Chapter Download
32.19: Increasing Reliance on Imported Nonfuel Minerals
Increasing Reliance on Imported Nonfuel Minerals
The US has grown increasingly dependent on imported minerals.
View in Chapter Download
32.20: Mitigation-Related Activities at the State and City Levels
Mitigation-Related Activities at the State and City Levels
Many states and cities have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
View in Chapter Download
32.21: Adoption Rate of Various Forms of Policy Instruments and Climate Action
Adoption Rate of Various Forms of Policy Instruments and Climate Action
States and cities have adopted a range of climate actions and policies.
View in Chapter Download
32.22: Potential Emissions Reductions by Action, for the Year 2050
Potential Emissions Reductions by Action, for the Year 2050
The size and cost of emissions reductions depend on available technologies and the source of related emissions.
View in Chapter Download
32.23: US Company-Level Mitigation Actions
US Company-Level Mitigation Actions
A majority of US companies have made mitigation commitments, inventoried emissions, or participated in initiatives, but fewer are taking action.
View in Chapter Download
Focus on Compound Events
F1.1: Compound Events
Compound Events
Compound events have amplifying impacts on ecosystems and human communities and affect their capacity to respond.
View in Chapter Download
Focus on Western Wildfires
F2.1: Wildfire Impacts
Wildfire Impacts
Climate change has increased the area burned and severity of wildfires and impacts on the environment, human health, and society.
View in Chapter Download
Focus on COVID-19 and Climate Change
F3.1: Climate Change and Pandemic Risks
Climate Change and Pandemic Risks
Climate change exacerbates infectious disease risk and increases health disparities.
View in Chapter Download
Focus on Risks to Supply Chains
F4.1: Climate Change and Food Supply
Climate Change and Food Supply
Climate change poses challenges to the animal food products supply chain.
View in Chapter Download
Focus on Blue Carbon
F5.1: Blue Carbon Ecosystem Sequestration Potential
Blue Carbon Ecosystem Sequestration Potential
Coastal blue carbon ecosystems play an important role in carbon sequestration but are vulnerable to climate change.
View in Chapter Download
Appendix 1: Assessment Development Process
A1.1: Authors of NCA5
NCA5 Authors Meeting
Hundreds of experts from all across the US came together to develop NCA5.
View in Chapter Download
A1.2: NCA5 Zero Order Draft Public Engagement Workshops
Early public engagement
Early public engagement helped inform the scope of NCA5.
View in Chapter Download
Appendix 2: Information Quality
Appendix 3: Scenarios and Datasets
A3.1: Downscaling Global Climate Model Data for NCA5
Downscaling Global Climate Model Data for NCA5
Global model data were downscaled and weighted to generate higher-resolution climate projections.
View in Chapter Download
Appendix 4: Indicators
A4.1: Changes in Temperature at Multiple Scales
Changes in Temperature at Multiple Scales
Presenting indicators at different scales allows stakeholders to obtain information relevant to their needs.
View in Chapter Download
A4.2: USGCRP Indicators Platform
USGCRP Indicators Platform
The USGCRP Indicators Platform leverages agency-supported science and data to understand how environmental, health, and societal conditions are changing.
View in Chapter Download
A4.3: Annual Greenhouse Gas Index
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index
The warming effects of greenhouse gases are increasing over time.
View in Chapter Download
A4.4: Urban Heat Island (UHI) Intensity
Urban Heat Island (UHI) Intensity
Urban heat island intensity is increasing in many US cities due to the combination of urbanization and rising temperatures.
View in Chapter Download
A4.5: Billion-Dollar Disasters
Billion-Dollar Disasters
The number of weather- and climate-related disasters exceeding $1 billion has substantially increased since 1980.
View in Chapter Download
A4.6: Changes in Arctic Sea Ice
Changes in Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic sea ice is shrinking as the melt season grows longer.
View in Chapter Download
A4.7: Snowpack Changes in the West
Snowpack Changes in the West
Western snowpack is declining, peak snowpack is occurring earlier, and the snowpack season is shortening in length.
View in Chapter Download
A4.8: Flood Frequency and Magnitude West of the Mississippi River
Flood Frequency and Magnitude West of the Mississippi River
Trends in flood magnitude and frequency vary widely across the western US.
View in Chapter Download
A4.9: Change in Drought Conditions
Change in Drought Conditions
Long-term records show conditions are becoming drier in many portions of the West and wetter elsewhere, particularly the East.
View in Chapter Download
A4.10: Sea Level and Coastal Flooding in the Northeast
Sea Level and Coastal Flooding in the Northeast
The combination of rising sea levels and the increased frequency of coastal flooding events exacerbates risk for coastal communities.
View in Chapter Download
A4.11: Marine Heatwaves
Marine Heatwaves
Extreme ocean temperatures are more common as ocean temperatures rise.
View in Chapter Download
A4.12: Marine Species Distribution
Marine Species Distribution
Marine species along US coasts are generally shifting northward to cooler waters.
View in Chapter Download
A4.13: Changes in Seasonality
Changes in Seasonality
Observed evidence of changes in seasonality reflect a warming climate.
View in Chapter Download
A4.14: Wildfires and Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) Growth
Wildfires and Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) Growth
Area burned by wildfires is increasing and the wildland–urban interface is expanding in the contiguous US.
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A4.15: Rangeland Production
Rangeland Production
Rangeland vegetation production has severely declined in some areas and increased in others.
View in Chapter Download
A4.16: Infectious Diseases Impacted by Climate Change
Infectious Diseases Impacted by Climate Change
Climate, environmental, and social factors influence infectious disease rates.
View in Chapter Download
A4.17: Energy Production by Source
Energy Production by Source
US energy production from renewables is increasing.
View in Chapter Download

Likelihood

Virtually Certain Very Likely Likely As Likely as Not Unlikely Very Unikely Exceptionally Unlikely
99%–100% 90%–100% 66%–100% 33%–66% 0%–33% 0%–10% 0%–1%

Confidence Level

Very High High Medium Low
  • Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, well-documented and accepted methods, etc.)
  • High consensus
  • Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.)
  • Medium consensus
  • Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, methods emerging, etc.)
  • Competing schools of thought
  • Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.)
  • Disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

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