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nca2023.globalchange.gov

Fifth National Climate Assessment

Chapters and Pages

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter/

Front Matter

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/

Overview

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/

Climate Trends

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/

Earth Systems Processes

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/

Water

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/

Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/

Land Cover and Land-Use Change

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/

Forests

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/

Coastal Effects

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/

Ocean Ecosystems and Marine Resources

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/11/

Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/

Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/13/

Transportation

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/14/

Air Quality

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/

Human Health

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/16/

Tribes and Indigenous Peoples

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/17/

Climate Effects on US International Interests

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/

Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/19/

Economics

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/

Social Systems and Justice

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/21/

Northeast

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/22/

Southeast

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/23/

US Caribbean

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/24/

Midwest

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/25/

Northern Great Plains

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/26/

Southern Great Plains

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/27/

Northwest

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/28/

Southwest

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/29/

Alaska

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/30/

Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/31/

Adaptation

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/32/

Mitigation

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-1/

Focus on Compound Events

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-2/

Focus on Western Wildfires

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-3/

Focus on COVID-19 and Climate Change

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-4/

Focus on Risks to Supply Chains

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-5/

Focus on Blue Carbon

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-1/

Assessment Development Process

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-2/

Information Quality

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-3/

Scenarios and Datasets

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-4/

Indicators

https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-5/

Glossary

/credits

Credits

/art-climate

Art x Climate

/downloads

Downloads

/all-figures

All Figures

Key Messages

/chapter/2#key-message-1

KM 2.1. Climate Is Changing, and Scientists Understand Why

/chapter/2#key-message-2

KM 2.2. Extreme Events Are Becoming More Frequent and Severe

/chapter/2#key-message-3

KM 2.3. How Much the Climate Changes Depends on the Choices Made Now

/chapter/3#key-message-1

KM 3.1. Human Activities Have Caused the Observed Global Warming

/chapter/3#key-message-2

KM 3.2. The Estimated Range of Climate Sensitivity Has Narrowed by 50%

/chapter/3#key-message-3

KM 3.3. New Data and Analysis Methods Have Advanced Climate Science

/chapter/3#key-message-4

KM 3.4. Humans Are Changing Earth System Processes

/chapter/3#key-message-5

KM 3.5. Humans Are Changing Weather and Climate Extremes

/chapter/4#key-message-1

KM 4.1. Climate Change Will Continue to Cause Profound Changes in the Water Cycle

/chapter/4#key-message-2

KM 4.2. Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some

/chapter/4#key-message-3

KM 4.3. Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven

/chapter/5#key-message-1

KM 5.1. Climate Change Threatens Energy Systems

/chapter/5#key-message-2

KM 5.2. Compounding Factors Affect Energy-System and Community Vulnerabilities

/chapter/5#key-message-3

KM 5.3. Efforts to Enhance Energy System Resilience Are Underway

/chapter/6#key-message-1

KM 6.1. The Goods and Services Provided by Land Systems Are Threatened by Climate Change

/chapter/6#key-message-2

KM 6.2. Changes in Climate and Land Use Affect Land-System Resilience

/chapter/6#key-message-3

KM 6.3. Mitigation and Adaptation Priorities Will Increasingly Constrain Future Land-Use Options

/chapter/7#key-message-1

KM 7.1. Forests Are Increasingly Affected by Climate Change and Disturbances

/chapter/7#key-message-2

KM 7.2. Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests

/chapter/7#key-message-3

KM 7.3. Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems

/chapter/8#key-message-1

KM 8.1. Climate Change Is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations

/chapter/8#key-message-2

KM 8.2. Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss Are Accelerating

/chapter/8#key-message-3

KM 8.3. Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities

/chapter/9#key-message-1

KM 9.1. Coastal Hazards Are Increasing Due to Accelerating Sea Level Rise and Changing Storm Patterns

/chapter/9#key-message-2

KM 9.2. Coastal Impacts on People and Ecosystems Are Increasing Due to Climate Change

/chapter/9#key-message-3

KM 9.3. Adaptation Reduces Risk and Provides Additional Benefits for Coastal Communities

/chapter/10#key-message-1

KM 10.1. Unprecedented Climate Impacts Threaten Ecosystems and Human Well-Being

/chapter/10#key-message-2

KM 10.2. Climate Change Is Altering Marine-Related Economic Activities

/chapter/10#key-message-3

KM 10.3. Our Future Ocean Depends on Decisions Today

/chapter/11#key-message-1

KM 11.1. Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape

/chapter/11#key-message-2

KM 11.2. Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways

/chapter/11#key-message-3

KM 11.3. Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities

/chapter/12#key-message-1

KM 12.1. Urban Areas Are Major Drivers of Climate Change

/chapter/12#key-message-2

KM 12.2. Attributes of the Built Environment Exacerbate Climate Impacts, Risks, and Vulnerabilities

/chapter/12#key-message-3

KM 12.3. Urban Environments Create Opportunities for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

/chapter/12#key-message-4

KM 12.4. Community-Led Actions Signal a Shift Toward Equitable Climate Governance

/chapter/13#key-message-1

KM 13.1. Limiting Transportation Sector Emissions and Integrating Climate Projections Can Reduce Risks

/chapter/13#key-message-2

KM 13.2. Climate Change Combined with Other Disruptors Requires New Frameworks and Competencies

/chapter/13#key-message-3

KM 13.3. Sustainable Transportation Would Produce Societal Benefits

/chapter/13#key-message-4

KM 13.4. Equitable Distribution of Transportation Trade-Offs and Benefits Requires Community Involvement

/chapter/14#key-message-1

KM 14.1. Climate Change Will Hamper Efforts to Improve US Air Quality

/chapter/14#key-message-2

KM 14.2. Increasing Wildfire Smoke Is Harming Human Health and Catalyzing New Protection Strategies

/chapter/14#key-message-3

KM 14.3. Air Pollution Is Often Worse in Communities of Color and Low-Income Communities

/chapter/14#key-message-4

KM 14.4. Climate Change Is Worsening Pollen Exposures and Adversely Impacting Health

/chapter/14#key-message-5

KM 14.5. Policies Can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Improve Air Quality Simultaneously

/chapter/15#key-message-1

KM 15.1. Climate Change Is Harming Human Health

/chapter/15#key-message-2

KM 15.2. Systemic Racism and Discrimination Exacerbate Climate Impacts on Human Health

/chapter/15#key-message-3

KM 15.3. Timely, Effective, and Culturally Appropriate Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Protect Human Health

/chapter/16#key-message-1

KM 16.1. Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty

/chapter/16#key-message-2

KM 16.2. Self-Determination Is Key to Indigenous Peoples’ Resilience to Climate Change

/chapter/16#key-message-3

KM 16.3. Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response

/chapter/17#key-message-1

KM 17.1. Interdependent, Systemic Climate-Related Risks Increasingly Affect US Interests

/chapter/17#key-message-2

KM 17.2. Climate Change Exacerbates Risks to National Security

/chapter/17#key-message-3

KM 17.3. Climate Change Presents Risks and Opportunities for US Economics, Trade, and Investments

/chapter/17#key-message-4

KM 17.4. Climate Change Undermines Sustainable Development

/chapter/18#key-message-1

KM 18.1. Human–Nature Interconnections Create Unexpected Climate Risks and Opportunities

/chapter/18#key-message-2

KM 18.2. Complex Climate Impacts and Responses Further Burden Frontline Communities

/chapter/18#key-message-3

KM 18.3. Collaborations Among Diverse Knowledge Holders Improve Responses to Complex Climate Challenges

/chapter/18#key-message-4

KM 18.4. New Governance Approaches Are Emerging, but Gaps in Practice and Evidence Persist

/chapter/19#key-message-1

KM 19.1. Climate Change Affects the Economy Directly

/chapter/19#key-message-2

KM 19.2. Markets and Budgets Respond to Climate Change

/chapter/19#key-message-3

KM 19.3. Economic Opportunities for Households, Businesses, and Institutions Will Change

/chapter/20#key-message-1

KM 20.1. Social Systems Are Changing the Climate and Distributing Its Impacts Inequitably

/chapter/20#key-message-2

KM 20.2. Social Systems Structure How People Know and Communicate About Climate Change

/chapter/20#key-message-3

KM 20.3. Climate Justice Is Possible If Processes like Migration and Energy Transitions Are Equitable

/chapter/21#key-message-1

KM 21.1. Chronic Impacts of Extreme Weather Are Shaping Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts

/chapter/21#key-message-2

KM 21.2. Ocean and Coastal Impacts Are Driving Adaptation to Climate Change

/chapter/21#key-message-3

KM 21.3. Disproportionate Impacts Highlight the Importance of Equitable Policy Choices

/chapter/21#key-message-4

KM 21.4. Climate Action Plans Are Now Being Implemented

/chapter/21#key-message-5

KM 21.5. Implementation of Climate Plans Depends on Adequate Financing

/chapter/22#key-message-1

KM 22.1. Regional Growth Increases Climate Risks

/chapter/22#key-message-2

KM 22.2. Climate Change Worsens Human Health and Widens Health Inequities

/chapter/22#key-message-3

KM 22.3. Climate Change Disproportionately Damages Southeastern Jobs, Households, and Economic Security

/chapter/22#key-message-4

KM 22.4. Agriculture Faces Growing Threats, but Innovations Offer Help

/chapter/23#key-message-1

KM 23.1. Climate-Driven Extreme Events Exacerbate Inequities and Impact Human Health and Well-Being

/chapter/23#key-message-2

KM 23.2. Ecology and Biodiversity Are Unique and Vulnerable

/chapter/23#key-message-3

KM 23.3. Climate Change Threatens Water and Food Security

/chapter/23#key-message-4

KM 23.4. Infrastructure and Energy Are Vulnerable, but Decentralization Could Improve Resilience

/chapter/23#key-message-5

KM 23.5. Adaptation Effectiveness Increases When Coupled with Strategic Governance and Planning

/chapter/24#key-message-1

KM 24.1. Climate-Smart Practices May Offset Complex Climate Interactions in Agriculture

/chapter/24#key-message-2

KM 24.2. Adaptation May Ease Disruptions to Ecosystems and Their Services

/chapter/24#key-message-3

KM 24.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Improve Individual and Community Health

/chapter/24#key-message-4

KM 24.4. Green Infrastructure and Investment Solutions Can Address Costly Climate Change Impacts

/chapter/24#key-message-5

KM 24.5. Managing Extremes Is Necessary to Minimize Impacts on Water Quality and Quantity

/chapter/25#key-message-1

KM 25.1. Climate Change Is Compounding the Impacts of Extreme Events

/chapter/25#key-message-2

KM 25.2. Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Hazards

/chapter/25#key-message-3

KM 25.3. Resource- and Land-Based Livelihoods Are at Risk

/chapter/25#key-message-4

KM 25.4. Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions

/chapter/25#key-message-5

KM 25.5. Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform

/chapter/26#key-message-1

KM 26.1. How We Live: Climate Change Is Degrading Lands, Waters, Culture, and Health

/chapter/26#key-message-2

KM 26.2. How We Work: Climate Changes Are Creating Economic Challenges and Opportunities

/chapter/26#key-message-3

KM 26.3. How We Play: Climate Extremes Are Endangering Sports, Recreation, and Leisure

/chapter/26#key-message-4

KM 26.4. How We Heal: Climate Change Is Exacerbating Existing Social and Environmental Disparities

/chapter/26#key-message-5

KM 26.5. How We Serve: Climate Change Is Straining Public Infrastructure and Services

/chapter/27#key-message-1

KM 27.1. Frontline Communities Are Overburdened, and Prioritizing Social Equity Advances Regional Resilience

/chapter/27#key-message-2

KM 27.2. Ecosystems Are Transitioning in Response to Extreme Events and Human Activity

/chapter/27#key-message-3

KM 27.3. Impacts to Regional Economies Have Cascading Effects on Livelihoods and Well-Being

/chapter/27#key-message-4

KM 27.4. Infrastructure Systems Are Stressed by Climate Change but Can Enable Mitigation and Adaptation

/chapter/27#key-message-5

KM 27.5. Climate Change Amplifies Health Inequities

/chapter/27#key-message-6

KM 27.6. Climate Change Affects Heritage and Sense of Place

/chapter/28#key-message-1

KM 28.1. Drought and Increasing Aridity Threaten Water Resources

/chapter/28#key-message-2

KM 28.2. Adaptation Efforts Increase to Address Accelerating Impacts to the Region’s Coast and Ocean

/chapter/28#key-message-3

KM 28.3. Increasing Challenges Confront Food and Fiber Production in the Southwest

/chapter/28#key-message-4

KM 28.4. Climate Change Compromises Human Health and Reshapes Demographics

/chapter/28#key-message-5

KM 28.5. Changes in Wildfire Patterns Pose Challenges for Southwest Residents and Ecosystems

/chapter/29#key-message-1

KM 29.1. Our Health and Healthcare Are at Risk

/chapter/29#key-message-2

KM 29.2. Our Communities Are Navigating Compounding Stressors

/chapter/29#key-message-3

KM 29.3. Our Livelihoods Are Vulnerable Without Diversification

/chapter/29#key-message-4

KM 29.4. Our Built Environment Will Become More Costly

/chapter/29#key-message-5

KM 29.5. Our Natural Environment Is Transforming Rapidly

/chapter/29#key-message-6

KM 29.6. Our Security Faces Greater Threats

/chapter/29#key-message-7

KM 29.7. Our Just and Prosperous Future Starts with Adaptation

/chapter/30#key-message-1

KM 30.1. Climate Change Impairs Access to Healthy Food and Water

/chapter/30#key-message-2

KM 30.2. Climate Change Undermines Human Health, but Community Strength Boosts Resilience

/chapter/30#key-message-3

KM 30.3. Rising Sea Levels Threaten Infrastructure and Local Economies and Exacerbate Existing Inequities

/chapter/30#key-message-4

KM 30.4. Responses to Rising Threats May Help Safeguard Tropical Ecosystems and Biodiversity

/chapter/30#key-message-5

KM 30.5. Indigenous Knowledge Systems Strengthen Island Resilience

/chapter/31#key-message-1

KM 31.1. Adaptation Is Occurring but Is Insufficient in Relation to the Pace of Climate Change

/chapter/31#key-message-2

KM 31.2. Effective Adaptation Requires Centering Equity

/chapter/31#key-message-3

KM 31.3. Transformative Adaptation Will Be Needed to Adequately Address Climate-Related Risks

/chapter/31#key-message-4

KM 31.4. Effective Adaptation Governance Empowers Multiple Voices to Navigate Competing Goals

/chapter/31#key-message-5

KM 31.5. Adaptation Requires More than Scientific Information and Understanding

/chapter/31#key-message-6

KM 31.6. Adaptation Investments and Financing Are Difficult to Track and May Be Inadequate

/chapter/32#key-message-1

KM 32.1. Successful Mitigation Means Reaching Net-Zero Emissions

/chapter/32#key-message-2

KM 32.2. We Know How to Drastically Reduce Emissions

/chapter/32#key-message-3

KM 32.3. To Reach Net-Zero Emissions, Additional Mitigation Options Need to Be Explored

/chapter/32#key-message-4

KM 32.4. Mitigation Can Be Sustainable, Healthy, and Fair

/chapter/32#key-message-5

KM 32.5. Governments, Organizations, and Individuals Can Act to Reduce Emissions