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    • About This Report
    • Guide to the Report
    • Report Credits
    • Companion Podcast
    • Additional Resources
    • About this Report
    • Guide to this Report
    • OVERVIEW
    • Physical Science
    • 2. Climate Trends
    • 3. Earth Systems Processes
    • National Topics
    • 4. Water
    • 5. Energy
    • 6. Land
    • 7. Forests
    • 8. Ecosystems
    • 9. Coasts
    • 10. Oceans
    • 11. Agriculture
    • 12. Built Environment
    • 13. Transportation
    • 14. Air Quality
    • 15. Human Health
    • 16. Indigenous Peoples
    • 17. International
    • 18. Complex Systems
    • 19. Economics
    • 20. Social Systems and Justice
    • Regions
    • 21. Northeast
    • 22. Southeast
    • 23. US Caribbean
    • 24. Midwest
    • 25. Northern Great Plains
    • 26. Southern Great Plains
    • 27. Northwest
    • 28. Southwest
    • 29. Alaska
    • 30. Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
    • Responses
    • 31. Adaptation
    • 32. Mitigation
    • Focus On
    • F1. Compound Events
    • F2. Western Wildfires
    • F3. COVID-19 and Climate Change
    • F4. Risks to Supply Chains
    • F5. Blue Carbon
    • Appendices
    • A1. Process
    • A2. Information Quality
    • A3. Scenarios and Datasets
    • A4. Indicators
    • A5. Glossary

    • All Figures
    • All Key Messages
    • View All Report Downloads
    • Download Report-in-Brief PDF
    • Download All Report Figures (.zip)
    • Order Printed Materials
  • Art × Climate
  • NCA Atlas
  • EN ESPAÑOL
i

Fifth National Climate Assessment
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Chapter
Handout
Figures Slides
Report Downloads Full Report PDF file icon - - ZIP file icon -
Overview PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon Download PPT icon
Report in Brief PDF file icon - - - -
Chapter Downloads Front Matter PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
1: Overview PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon Download PPT icon
2: Climate Trends PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
3: Earth Systems Processes PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
4: Water PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
5: Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
6: Land Cover and Land-Use Change PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
7: Forests PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
9: Coastal Effects PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
10: Ocean Ecosystems and Marine Resources PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
11: Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
12: Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
13: Transportation PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
14: Air Quality PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
15: Human Health PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
16: Tribes and Indigenous Peoples PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
17: Climate Effects on US International Interests PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
18: Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
19: Economics PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
20: Social Systems and Justice PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
21: Northeast PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
22: Southeast PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
23: US Caribbean PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
24: Midwest PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
25: Northern Great Plains PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
26: Southern Great Plains PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
27: Northwest PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
28: Southwest PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
29: Alaska PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
30: Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
31: Adaptation PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
32: Mitigation PDF file icon PDF file icon PDF file icon Zip file icon Download PPT icon
Focus On
F1: Compound Events PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
F2: Western Wildfires PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
F3: COVID-19 and Climate Change PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
F4: Risks to Supply Chains PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
F5: Blue Carbon PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
Appendices
A1: Assessment Development Process PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
A2: Information Quality PDF file icon PDF file icon - - -
A3: Scenarios and Datasets PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon -
A4: Indicators PDF file icon PDF file icon - Zip file icon Download PPT icon
A5: Glossary PDF file icon - - - -
Public Reviews Public Comments and Author Responses for the Zero Order Draft PDF file icon - - - -
Public Comments and Author Responses for the Third Order Draft PDF file icon - - - -
Review by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine PDF file icon - - - -
Narrative Response to the Academies Review PDF file icon - - - -
Author Responses to National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine PDF file icon - - - -
Other Materials Information Quality Guidance PDF file icon - - - -
Implementation of Federal Guidelines and Best Practices for Highly Influential Scientific Assessments in the Fifth National Climate Assessment PDF file icon - - - -
Information Quality Act Certification PDF file icon - - - -
Selection Process for Downscaled Climate Projection Data in the Fifth National Climate Assessment PDF file icon - - - -
Errata Errata PDF file icon - - - -

Likelihood

Virtually Certain Very Likely Likely As Likely as Not Unlikely Very Unikely Exceptionally Unlikely
99%–100% 90%–100% 66%–100% 33%–66% 0%–33% 0%–10% 0%–1%

Confidence Level

Very High High Medium Low
  • Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, well-documented and accepted methods, etc.)
  • High consensus
  • Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.)
  • Medium consensus
  • Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, methods emerging, etc.)
  • Competing schools of thought
  • Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.)
  • Disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

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