Fifth National Climate Assessment
26. Southern Great Plains

Lands and waters of the Southern Great Plains are important to people’s ways of life, shaping the stories of family and community successes and struggles. Climate change has added stress to lands and waters that already contend with invasive species, land-use change, and land fragmentation (KM 8.2).²⁰ Rangeland and grassland health is being degraded by woody plant encroachment from precipitation changes²¹ or fire suppression.²² Wetlands are suffering from high evaporation rates or excess nutrient inputs from flood runoff.²³ Ice storms, drought, and high temperatures have stressed forests, making them susceptible to post-event trauma (e.g., disease, pests, fire) and mortality.^24,25,26

Urban landscapes are being harmed by air and water pollution, extreme heat, drought, and flooding (KM 12.2). As climate change brings heavier rainfall, cities and towns are increasingly at risk of high-impact floods. The extensive impervious surfaces (e.g., parking lots, roofs) of metropolitan areas such as Houston (Box 26.1) increase the likelihood of widespread flooding because of increased runoff.²⁷ Coastal cities have added risk from sea level rise. By 2100, under a projected 3.3 feet of sea level rise along the Texas Gulf Coast, a Category 2 hurricane is estimated to cause 3–10 times more damage to buildings and be $10.4 billion (in 2022 dollars) more costly (from averages of $3.7 to $14.1 billion) than a similar storm today.²⁸

Traditions, heritage, and culture related to land and water are also at risk because of changes forced by novel climatic conditions.^29,30 Warming temperatures are shifting ranges of culturally significant species, making them absent or rare on lands where Indigenous People have access.³¹ Heavy rainfall and resulting flooding have inundated archaeological sites.³² Large-scale or repetitive damages from sea level rise, tropical cyclones, drought, and flooding have increased displacement of people and migration at the Texas–Mexico border and from coastal communities (KM 9.3).^33,34,35,36

Tribes are revitalizing their cultural practices and relationships with nature to find solutions that resonate with their traditions (KMs 16.2, 16.3). For example, the Tribal Alliance for Pollinators is building on Indigenous cultural and medicinal traditions to preserve and restore grassland ecosystems for monarch butterflies and other threatened pollinators.³¹ To reduce harmful algal blooms that proliferate with hot temperatures,³⁷ the Chickasaw Nation has teamed with local landowners and agriculture producers in southern Oklahoma to remove invasive junipers, improve fertilizer application methods, and restore native habitats for ground-nesting birds.³⁸

Climate change is also affecting public health through cardiovascular stress from temperature extremes, respiratory diseases enhanced by allergens and pollutants, increases in transmission of vector-borne diseases (e.g., via mosquitoes), and illnesses caused by poor water quality (KM 15.1). Many of these risks are compounded by ecosystem and land-use change. For example, global warming has induced earlier and longer pollen seasons, with consistent changes during the past three decades in Texas.⁴⁹ From 1987 to 2020, expansion of eastern red cedars was associated with a 205% increase in allergenic pollen intensity in Tulsa, Oklahoma.⁵⁰ During grass-pollen season, the region’s emergency medical facilities are expected to see an average of 720 (under an intermediate scenario [RCP4.5]) to 980 (very high scenario [RCP8.5]) more asthma patients annually by 2050.⁵¹

High temperatures, particularly when combined with high humidity, have impaired human health. In Oklahoma, most heat-related deaths have occurred from July to September during heatwaves.⁵² People who are male, Black, 65 years or older, diabetic, unmarried, without air-conditioning, or living below the poverty line have been at higher risk of heat-related death (KM 15.2).^52,53 Warmer temperatures also have worsened air pollution by increasing near-surface ozone.⁵⁴ In 2023, 18 Texas counties in the Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston–Galveston metropolitan areas exceeded national ozone standards (i.e., 8-hour ozone concentrations of 0.100 – 0.113 parts per million), affecting more than 12 million people.⁵⁵

Rising temperatures are extending the ranges and lengthening the active seasons of ticks, mosquitoes, and other disease vectors (KM 15.1).⁵⁶ For instance, host-seeking activities of ticks, which usually suspend in cold temperatures, were reported during January and February 2017 in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.⁵⁷ Warmer temperatures in the future are expected to support the range expansion of tropical diseases, including dengue, West Nile virus, Chagas disease, and chikungunya.⁵⁸ Across western parts of the region, future warmer and drier conditions are projected to support an increased incidence of Valley fever,⁵⁹ which is endemic in parts of Texas.⁶⁰

Climate-smart planning (Figure 26.4) is alleviating some harmful consequences of climate variability and change that threaten residents’ health. Urban tree canopy assessment,⁶¹ planning,⁶² and planting⁶³ efforts are aiming to reduce the negative impacts of increased temperatures, air pollution, and variable precipitation on urban landscapes.⁶⁴ Community food forests, such as the Osage Orchard in Pawhuska, Oklahoma, provide food sovereignty and security, climate resilience, and public health benefits.⁶⁵ Still, a lack of resources among many Tribes,⁶⁶ outdoor and migrant workers,⁶⁷ and overburdened populations⁶⁸ has limited the ability of these groups to respond to climate-related health risks.

URL

Alternative text

Resilience actions can help alleviate harmful consequences to communities of more frequent or severe drought.

Figure 26.4. The increasing frequency or severity of drought has negative impacts on lands and waters across the Southern Great Plains, including reduced crop and livestock production, shortages of drinking water, increased stress on ecosystems, and deterioration of air and drinking water quality. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can increase resilience and reduce negative impacts. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Close

The region’s economy provides for daily needs of residents, supports their long-term aspirations, and addresses societal needs inside and beyond the region. Hotter temperatures, heavier precipitation, stronger tropical cyclones, and other climate changes (App. 4) have harmed workers’ health and productivity, inflated product or building costs, and disrupted supply chains (Focus on Risks to Supply Chains). Extreme weather events, such as the February 2021 winter storm (Box 26.2), have exposed gaps in the resilience of businesses to climate extremes while also highlighting opportunities to develop products and services in response to worldwide demand for resilient solutions.

The energy industry in the Southern Great Plains is a global leader in fossil fuel exploration and production, serving a large fraction of global energy demand and supporting rural towns through local employment and tax revenues.⁶⁹ Fossil fuels release greenhouse gases when burned, contributing substantially to atmospheric warming (KM 2.1). In 2020 Texas led the Nation in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂; 667 million metric tons)—double that of the next-highest emitting state.¹⁹ Texas also had the highest methane emissions (94 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2020).¹⁹ Natural gas operations in the Permian Basin leak the largest amount of methane per year from any US gas-producing region (Figure 26.5), an amount sufficient to supply natural gas to 7 million Texas households annually.⁷⁰ Atmospheric methane concentrations are high across the Permian Basin as compared to the rest of the US (Figure 26.5) and are attributed primarily to natural gas production.⁷⁰

URL

Alternative text

Natural gas operations in the Permian Basin leak large amounts of methane.

Figure 26.5. The maps show satellite-estimated methane mixing ratio (in parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) across (a) the contiguous United States and (b) the Permian Basin (black box and inset map), averaged from May 2018 to March 2019. Mixing ratio is a measure of the concentration of a gas such as methane in the air. Darker shading represents higher methane mixing ratios; missing data are shaded white. Accounting for atmospheric transport, the spatial pattern of methane mixing ratio across the basin is closely associated with gross (before processing) natural gas production and, to a lesser extent, with oil production. (The original published source did not include data for Alaska, Hawaiʻi and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands, and the US Caribbean.) Natural gas operations in the Permian Basin leak a large volume of methane, contributing to atmospheric warming. Adapted from Zhang et al. 2020⁷⁰ [CC BY-NC 4.0].

Throughout the region, a major shift in energy generation from fossil fuels toward renewables (KM 5.3) is underway, creating new jobs, cleaner air, and climate change mitigation benefits. For example, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT; Texas’s main power supplier) estimates that installed capacity for electricity generated by wind from their suppliers alone will increase from 31,100 MW in 2020 to 41,700 MW in 2025.⁷¹ During the same time, ERCOT expects growth in solar generation capacity from 6,000 MW to 46,400 MW, and in battery storage from 275 MW to 14,500 MW. Electricity generated from gas and coal, however, is not planned to increase substantially.^71,72 In the third quarter of 2022, about 285,000 workers were employed in fossil fuel extraction, distribution, and support activities across the three states.⁷³ A transition of this workforce from a carbon-intensive to a low-carbon economy is expected to affect some Southern Great Plains communities disproportionately.⁷⁴ Within Tribes, a just transition also means a strengthening of Tribal sovereignty, economic independence, and nonextractive, Indigenous-based restoration of ecosystems.³ For Tribes and communities facing this transition, there generally is a lack of planning, infrastructure, financing, and workforce training in new careers (including in renewable energy) across the region (e.g., Williams et al. 2021⁷⁵).

The Southern Great Plains accounts for 42% of the Nation’s wind-generated electricity (Figure 26.6).¹⁸ Major wind installations in rural communities support the local tax base, stabilizing funding for public services such as education, road maintenance, and emergency services, as well as for infrastructure such as hospitals, jails, and parks.⁷⁶ Wind-turbine productivity across western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle is projected to increase with climate change because of a more stable low-level jet stream—a regional atmospheric feature that generates strong winds at turbine height, particularly at night during spring and summer.⁷⁷

URL

Alternative text

The Southern Great Plains contributes a large share to total US wind-generated electricity.

Figure 26.6. US producers in the 50 states generated 435 million megawatt-hours of electricity from wind power in 2022. Together, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas contributed 159 million megawatt-hours, or 42% of total US production. Data were not available for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands or the US Caribbean. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Agriculture, including crop and livestock production and forestry, is an essential industry in the region. In 2022, Kansas led the Nation in grain sorghum production and ranked second nationally in all wheat production.⁹⁰ In 2023, Texas was first in head of cattle and calves, with Kansas and Oklahoma ranking third and fifth, respectively.⁹¹ In 2017, the region’s agricultural industry generated $60.5 billion (in 2022 dollars) in agricultural product sales, 70% of which was animal based.⁹²

Agricultural producers are experiencing loss of livestock and crops, reduced income, and negative public health outcomes as climate extremes increase in magnitude and frequency (KMs 11.1, 11.2). Warmer average temperatures are leading to longer growing seasons, which affect different species differently and potentially disrupt the long-term natural connection between plants and their pollinators or between insects and their predators (KM 8.2).⁹³ Historical plant hardiness zones are predicted to continue migrating northward as the annual average minimum winter temperature warms (Figure 11.3). High temperatures have reduced plant growth and diminished productivity.⁹⁴ In western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, the combination of cold fronts and earlier springs is projected to increase the potential for bud burst before the last freeze (Figure 26.9),⁹⁵ threatening plant-leaf and wood-tissue damage.⁹⁶

URL

Alternative text

The risk of plant bud burst before the last freeze is projected to increase for the northern portion of the Southern Great Plains. The risk decreases for the southern portion of the region.

Figure 26.9. Freezing temperatures after plants begin growth in spring (late false spring) can damage crops and nursery plants. Risk of a late false spring is projected to increase in northern parts of the Southern Great Plains by the end of the century (2071–2100) as compared to the 1991–2020 average. The risk of late false springs increases by up to 20% across most of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5; panel a) and across most of Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and parts of Oklahoma under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5; panel b). Risk decreases for the remainder of the region, especially in southern and far western Texas under a very high scenario. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Compound events (Focus on Compound Events) that encompass hot, dry, and windy conditions have increased in southwest Kansas and the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, reducing wheat yields proportionally to the number of hot-dry-windy hours.^97,98 Producers also are expected to experience drier conditions (Figure 26.10) and more frequent or intense drought by midcentury in western and southern parts of the region, lowering crop productivity or increasing irrigation costs.⁹⁹ By 2070 across a range of climate change scenarios (from low [RCP2.6] to very high [RCP8.5]), the Southern Great Plains is projected to lose cropland acreage, as these lands transition to pasture or grassland.¹⁰⁰

URL

Alternative text

Slightly drier conditions are projected for much of the western and southern portions of the region by the end of the century.

Figure 26.10. In the future, drier conditions threaten agriculture and water supplies in parts of the Southern Great Plains (brown), while more precipitation is projected near the northern and eastern boundaries of the region (green). Under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 4% or more (as compared to the 1991–2020 average) in southern Texas by midcentury (a), with smaller differences expected by century’s end (b). Under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5), annual precipitation is projected to decline slightly in western portions of the region by midcentury (c) and by 4% or more in southeast and far northwest Texas by the century’s end (d). Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Although increasing irrigation during drought can help maintain productivity, it reduces groundwater available for other ecological or societal needs and for future generations. Growers can produce similar yields using less water by adopting more efficient irrigation technologies and management practices.¹⁰¹ Neighbors also can help neighbors. For example, irrigators in Sheridan and Thomas Counties (Kansas) self-imposed annual water restrictions that reduced water usage by 26%, with no reduction in crop acreage.¹⁰²

Drought also has reduced the capacity of native rangelands and planted pastures to support livestock and has increased labor demands for feeding, forcing producers to sell genetically valuable animals. High temperatures also pose risks to animal health.⁹⁹ In June 2022, for example, thousands of cattle died in southwestern Kansas during a heatwave combined with high humidity and low wind speeds.^103,104 The additional stressors from climate change are anticipated to be especially difficult for multigenerational ranchers who strive to earn a profit while preserving the health of lands for their descendants.¹⁰⁵ For large-scale livestock production, successful adaptation to a changing climate includes enhancing soil health and reducing the number of animals per acre.¹⁰⁶

Art × Climate

Tammy West
Keep it Together
(2021, site-specific environmental art)

Artist’s statement: Texas and much of the Western United States have been experiencing climate change-induced severe drought. This site-specific piece focuses on our collective climate grief. “Keep It Together” conceptually wills climate change and the drought to end by literally tying cracked earth back together. I wanted this piece to convey the desperate situation that we are in by mimicking surgical sutures or stitches with red string and nails. If we must resort to tying our world back together, we have nothing.

View the full Art × Climate gallery.

Artworks and artists’ statements are not official Assessment products.

More broadly, climate change–related damages to businesses have threatened the continuity of operations, increased insurance costs, disrupted supply chains, and shifted customer demand (KM 19.3). Many small businesses in the US do not have business disruption insurance, and 20%–40% of small businesses that temporarily close after a natural disaster do not reopen.¹⁰⁷ Small businesses owned by women, non-Whites, and veterans have a higher likelihood of closing after experiencing a natural disaster.¹⁰⁸ These closures have negatively affected the economy and well-being of local communities.¹⁰⁹

Large and small businesses and industries have started efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. For example, in 2021 Amazon piloted an electric-vehicle fleet in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and in 2022 Frito-Lay did likewise in Carrollton, Texas. The need to reduce emissions on a worldwide scale presents economic opportunities for energy-related businesses in the region to pilot and develop new technologies. NRG Energy and JX Nippon, for example, partnered to create a commercial-scale carbon capture facility at NRG’s coal-fired Petra Nova power plant in Thompsons, Texas.¹¹⁰ It was the US’s first and only facility to capture over one million tons of CO₂ per year. It suspended operations in 2020, however, because oil prices were too low to justify the expense of using the captured CO₂ for enhanced oil recovery.¹¹¹ Houston’s Sage Geosystems is testing how to generate geothermal energy at commercial scale by repurposing an existing oil well in San Isidro, Texas,¹¹² and groups like Kansas Soil Health Alliance and Texas Coastal Exchange are supporting carbon storage through soil and land stewardship.^113,114 Mitigation and adaptation actions by businesses and industries promote resilience and offer long-term benefits to employers, employees, and the surrounding community (Figure 26.11).

URL

Alternative text

Resilience actions can help businesses and industries reduce the negative consequences of more heavy rainfall events.

Figure 26.11. An increased number of heavy rainfall events affects business and industry across the Southern Great Plains through flooding of facilities and infrastructure, inundation of agricultural fields, interruptions to outdoor operations, and disruptions to transportation and logistics. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can increase resilience and reduce negative impacts. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Close

Sports, recreation, and leisure activities are part of life in the Southern Great Plains. Hunting, fishing, jogging, playing on the playground, and other activities help maintain participants’ physical and mental health. Organized sports, such as football, soccer, and softball, bring together spectators to cheer for their favorite athlete or team, encouraging social cohesion.¹¹⁵ Climate extremes have affected many of these activities, diminishing their benefits (Figure 26.12). For example, sports fields across southeastern Texas were closed because of flooding after Hurricane Harvey in 2017.¹¹⁶ Although superintendents of unaffected schools offered Harvey-displaced students the opportunity to play on their teams, these athletes were reluctant to forfeit their home-team eligibility, reducing their broader scholastic involvement.¹¹⁷

Athletes of all ages experience decreased performance, do less outdoor physical activity, and are at higher risk of severe to fatal health issues because of extreme heat, air pollution, and weather hazards.^118,119 These risks especially apply to older adults, those with chronic disease or higher body mass index, and those under prolonged environmental exposure (e.g., marathon runners) who conduct high-intensity sports or wear clothing or equipment that prevents heat loss.^120,121 Heat injuries can damage organs (e.g., liver, muscle, kidney) or disrupt the central nervous system.¹²²

URL

Alternative text

Climate change is expected to affect many outdoor sports, recreational, and leisure activities.

Figure 26.12. Outdoor sports, recreational, and leisure activities for people of all ages are being affected by climate extremes. Heavy rainfall, poor air quality, and extreme heat are expected to increase with climate change. These stressors impair athletic performance, damage sports facilities, and alter landscapes for recreation and tourism. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

All dimensions of environmental injustice (i.e., recognitional, distributional, and procedural; Figure 20.1) intersect with climate change to disproportionately harm people who have been marginalized (KM 15.2), reducing their participation in and health benefits from outdoor physical activities. These people include low-income populations, those living in areas with higher levels of air pollution, and those with less access to places to engage in sports, recreation, and leisure.^123,124 Non-English-speaking recreationists are at increased risk because health communication about climate-related hazards (such as the dangers of swimming in a harmful algal bloom) likely is not presented in their native language.¹²⁵

Nationally, heat-related illnesses are the third-highest cause of death among high school athletes¹²⁶ and are the most preventable cause of death in youth sports.¹²⁷ Heat-related deaths can occur outside of a typical heatwave. For players of organized football at any level, these types of death occurred most often in the south-central and southeastern United States.¹²⁸ These risks apply to any outdoor sport, especially those that involve training or competition during summer and fall. Future increases in the number of very hot days and warm nights are expected to exacerbate health concerns (Figure 26.13). For example, the number of 100-degree days is projected to increase by the end of the century under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) by 30–60 days in Kansas and Oklahoma and more than 80 days in parts of southwestern Texas (Figure 26.13c, d). By contrast, under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), the number of 100-degree days per year would remain close to the recent average (Figure 26.13a, b).

URL

Alternative text

The number of extreme-heat days is projected to increase.

Figure 26.13. Outdoor physical activity becomes more dangerous in extremely hot temperatures. By midcentury, the number of days per year with temperatures at or above 100°F across the Southern Great Plains is projected to increase (a) by 10–40 days under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and (c) by 10–60 days under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) above the 1991–2020 average. By late century, projections indicate that the number of these extreme-heat days would increase (b) by 10–60 days (SSP2-4.5) or (d) by 30–90 days (SSP5-8.5), depending on scenario. The historical average ranges from fewer than 10 days per year in Kansas to fewer than 20 days across most of Oklahoma and Texas, with 40–60 days along the Mexican border. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Extreme temperatures have threatened the health of young athletes and their ability to practice and compete outdoors in sports like cross-country, track and field, tennis, golf, softball, soccer, and lacrosse.^129,130,131 In schoolyards or playgrounds, the time spent playing in warm or hot environments and the physical environment (e.g., shade, vegetation) have affected the perceived discomfort of youth while they are active outdoors.¹³² Unhealthy heat stress is occurring even at ambient temperatures of 80°–85°F where play areas are unshaded and have artificial surfaces (e.g., asphalt or artificial turf).¹³³ Children from non-White and lower-income families have less access to high-quality, sizeable urban parks,¹³⁴ putting them at higher risk of heat illness and other adverse health outcomes (i.e., physical and mental health problems).¹²³

Heavy rainfall and extreme temperatures cause sports teams to depend more on artificial or indoor environments, increasing participation costs and decreasing access to sports, especially for lower-income populations.¹²⁰ The Texas Rangers replaced their structurally sound stadium earlier than expected because extreme temperatures suppressed attendance.¹³⁵ The new stadium has a retractable roof for a climate-controlled environment. Sports events across all levels—from youth and interscholastic to collegiate and professional—have been halted or moved because of the unusual timing or intensity of storms (Figure 26.14, left), resulting in scheduling challenges, economic costs, and reduced social interactions.^136,137 All people who enjoy the outdoors as part of their healthy lifestyle are expected to face more days with dangerous extreme heat (Figure 26.14, right).

URL

Alternative text

Outdoor sports and recreation of all kinds are challenged by extreme events.

Figure 26.14. (left) University of Oklahoma staff paint the Green Wave of Tulane University on their football field for a September 4, 2021, matchup. The game was relocated after Hurricane Ida left Tulane’s stadium powerless and damaged. (right) As people enjoy the outdoors as part of a healthy lifestyle, warmer temperatures are expected to cause them to adapt by drinking cool liquids, reducing strenuous exercise, or exercising during cooler times of the day. Photo credits: (left) ©University of Oklahoma Athletics; (right) ©Emma Kuster.

Lakes, streams, and reservoirs support fishing, hunting, and other outdoor recreation; however, more variable or heavier rainfall, flash or prolonged droughts, and higher temperatures have jeopardized recreation by reducing the quality and quantity of water.¹³⁸ In 2019, for example, southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma experienced historic spring flooding after multiple storm systems brought almost 2 feet of rain.¹³⁹ The flooding caused more than $12.5 million (in 2022 dollars) in damages for the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks, and Tourism (Figure 26.15), primarily through lost revenues from park closures.¹⁴⁰ Texas State Parks amassed a $5.9 million (in 2022 dollars) funding deficit when drought, wildfires, and record heat prompted fewer visitors in 2011–2012.¹⁴¹

URL

Alternative text

Historic spring flooding in 2019 closed parks and recreational areas in southeastern Kansas.

Figure 26.15. Sandstone Bluff Cabin along Toronto Lake in Cross Timbers State Park was flooded from spring 2019 storms, as the lake level exceeded prior historic records. The extreme rainfall closed parks and created an estimated $12.5 million (in 2022 dollars) in damages. Photo credit: ©Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks.

Along the Texas Coast, recreational opportunities are expected to change as coastal ecosystems transform, degrade, or disappear as a result of sea level rise (KM 9.1), warming temperatures,¹⁴² and more powerful or rainier tropical cyclones.¹⁴³ After the destruction from Hurricane Harvey (2017), coastal ecotourism collapsed across the Coastal Bend, where ecotourism supports 8% of the local workforce and generates over a billion dollars in economic value annually.¹⁴⁴ Sea level rise has caused erosion of coastal beaches. Sand erosion on Galveston Island, for instance, has increased by 45% in comparison to geologic rates.¹⁴⁵ Sea level rise is also increasing saltwater inundation of coastal marshes that support birdwatching and angling.¹⁴⁶

Changes in the timing and amount of precipitation have affected freshwater runoff and its associated salinity of bays and coastal ecosystems.¹⁴⁷ In the winter of 2008–2009 at the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, a combination of inundation, drought, and upstream water use resulted in the loss of 10% of blue crabs, the main food source for the whooping cranes that draw legions of birdwatchers to the refuge.¹⁴⁸ Other impacts are favorable for coastal fisheries. Fewer extreme freeze events have caused the northward expansion of mangroves,¹⁴² increasing fish diversity in Texas bays.¹⁴⁹ The diversity and prevalence of marine fish for sport fishing has also increased along Texas coasts as tropical fish expand their range northward.¹⁵⁰

In 2020, hunting, shooting, and trapping generated $1.3 billion (in 2022 dollars) in Texas, ranking it first in the Nation.¹⁵¹ Competition for limited food and water resources during drought is anticipated to alter animal migration, reproduction, and behavior (e.g., Cady et al. 2019; Porro et al. 2020^152,153). As a result, with warming temperatures, hunters are expected to see shifts in wildlife habitats and species ranges and decreases in the size and weight of prey.^154,155 For example, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has noted a decline in wintering mallard duck populations because open waters and food remain available farther north as winters warm.¹⁵⁶

Sport, recreation, fish, and wildlife managers can plan for climate change by considering ways to alleviate negative impacts or enhance benefits (Figure 26.16). For example, to reduce health risks resulting from extreme heat, athletes can acclimatize to heat by slowly increasing the duration and intensity of exercise, scheduling strenuous outdoor activities during cooler hours, and reducing their core body temperature by applying ice packs and drinking cold water.¹²² To maximize public outreach, communication of these risk-reduction methods should reflect the languages spoken throughout the community. Communities can support local sports, leisure, and recreation through landscape design by adding shaded green spaces as shelter from extreme heat. Park amenities, such as trees and splash pads, can also cool people on hot days. Despite the potential for temporary closures, siting parks and recreational areas along streambeds can reduce flood losses by buffering floodwaters in downstream developed areas.¹⁵⁷

URL

Alternative text

Resilience actions can alleviate the effects of hotter temperatures on outdoor activities.

Figure 26.16. Hotter temperatures affect athletic, recreational, and leisure activities outdoors across the Southern Great Plains, leading to poorer athletic performance and health outcomes, poorer water quality, hotter facilities and activity areas, and increased wildfire risk. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can increase resilience and reduce negative impacts. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Close

Climate change does not affect all people in the same ways; society’s most under-resourced and overburdened face harsher experiences (KMs 15.2, 20.1)¹⁵⁸ and have less access to climate-resilient infrastructure and recovery support,^159,160 typically as a result of power imbalances or discriminatory policies and practices.^161,162 This unequal distribution of harms and benefits is climate injustice. Those most impacted by climate inequities and injustices include people with low incomes; rural residents; disabled persons; older adults; Black, Indigenous, and People of Color; those who identify as other than cis, straight men; immigrants; those living in colonias (Texas-border housing developments lacking basic infrastructure and services); and unhoused individuals (KM 15.2).

Governments and organizations trying to heal historical traumas, injustices, and disparities are expected to face increasing urgency for equitable solutions and resources, as exposure to climate change impacts is projected to increase by midcentury. Lack of resources, political power, and technical expertise inhibit effective planning for and implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation.^3,163 Without intervention, climate change is expected to continue limiting equitable access to resources, services, and economic opportunities.

In many cases, housing stocks that serve low-income communities and communities of color lack adequate weatherization, air-conditioning, structural resistance to high winds, or adequate tree canopy, shade, and green spaces to provide heat relief due to long-standing under-resourcing and marginalization.^164,165 Lack of access to reliable and affordable energy increases the vulnerability of low-income communities to intense heat events. Severely marginalized groups, such as unhoused, detained, or incarcerated people, have experienced considerable suffering during extreme heat events with little relief.^166,167 For example, Texas inmates and correctional officers have endured heat stress or heat mortality from lack of air-conditioning and proper ventilation.¹⁶⁸

Low-income communities and communities of color often lack access to adequate and maintained flood infrastructure, which reduces resilience, limits recovery, and contributes to increased flood vulnerability.^169,170 In Houston and other Gulf Coast communities, for example, these populations often live in lower-quality housing in flood-prone areas, placing them at a higher risk than those living in surrounding areas.¹⁷¹

In addition, low-income residential areas and residents of color tend to be in closer proximity to petrochemical plants or chemical storage facilities than their higher-income or White counterparts,¹⁷² putting them at higher risk of industrial accidents caused by extreme weather events that release toxins into the air and water (KM 15.2).¹⁷³ For instance, facilities that reported chemical releases after Hurricane Harvey tended to be near predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods and revealed patterns of societal inequity.¹⁷⁴ Exposure is particularly acute near Superfund sites¹⁷⁵ and across industrial areas of the Texas Gulf Coast (Figure 26.17).¹⁷⁶

After a disaster, many people who are poor, uninsured, and without access to climate recovery and adaptation programs, such as voluntary buyouts, have not rebuilt.^159,177 Efforts to recover from compounding hazards (Focus on Compound Events) can quickly exhaust resources and strain mental well-being in low-income populations (KM 15.1).¹⁷⁸

URL

Alternative text

Historically underserved communities near chemical facilities face increased risks from weather hazards associated with climate change.

Figure 26.17. These scenes from Port Arthur, Texas, reveal (top) a low-lying landscape of petrochemical facilities and residential neighborhoods, representative of many communities along the Texas Gulf Coast. After Hurricane Harvey (2017) made landfall near Port Aransas, Texas, neighborhoods (bottom left) and transportation infrastructure and petrochemical facilities (bottom right) were flooded, exposing residents to contaminated waters spreading across the landscape. With climate change projected to intensify hurricanes and bring heavier rainfall, the risks to communities along the Gulf Coast are even higher when hazardous facilities, such as petrochemical plants, are nearby. Photo credits: (top) halbergman/iStock via Getty Images Plus; (bottom left) US Air National Guard Staff Sergeant Daniel J. Martinez; (bottom right) ©Alison A. Tarter.

Communities with insufficient capacity to evacuate prior to coastal storms are at greater risk from tropical cyclones, which are projected to be stronger by midcentury (KM 2.2). These communities also face increased likelihood of house abandonment as Gulf waters rise and rainfall becomes more intense.¹⁶⁰ After Hurricane Ike (2008), for example, over half of Galveston's public-housing apartments sustained damages, displacing almost 600 households. Most of these apartments were demolished and not replaced, and displaced residents confronted barriers to participating in post-disaster decision-making.¹⁷⁹

Settler colonialism and policies to eradicate Indigenous Peoples, cultures, and practices have contributed to current inequalities in climate mitigation and adaptation resources (KMs 15.2, 16.2, 20.2).³ Through the Indian Removal Act and treaties with the United States,¹⁸⁰ Tribes became bound geographically to predetermined jurisdictions, often in areas now at higher risk of climate change impacts (KM 16.2) or more exposed to climate hazards than their historical lands.¹⁸¹ Self-determination, sovereignty, and self-governance, however, empower Tribes in the region to lead their own climate adaptation planning, transforming themselves into thriving communities of their own design (Box 26.3). Indigenous Peoples have knowledges and experiences to share with all peoples about how to live sustainably and adapt to climate changes.¹⁸²

Residents, businesses, organizations, and governments in the Southern Great Plains can work together to repair prior societal damage and build community resilience by incorporating justice and equity principles in climate resilience strategies and actions (Figure 26.19).¹⁸³ For example, the Resilient El Paso strategy includes social stability, security, and justice among the 12 drivers in its resilience framework.¹⁸⁴ The strategy recognizes El Paso’s unique attributes, including one-quarter of El Pasoans living in poverty, a large bilingual population, and its location in the largest binational metroplex in the Western Hemisphere. Development of the strategy involved 70,000 residents participating in 95 community engagement events, ensuring that a range of voices were at the table. These adaptation efforts are complicated, however, by historical trauma, which has diminished trust in government, and the marginalization of various populations (e.g., Norton-Smith et al. 2016¹⁸⁵).

URL

Alternative text

Resilience actions centered on justice and equity can help overburdened communities respond to increasing hurricane risks.

Figure 26.19. More intense hurricanes increase challenges for justice and equity actions across the Southern Great Plains, including loss of homes and property, community dispersion and displacement, disruption of livelihoods and economy, and damage to infrastructure. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can align justice and equity work with climate resilience. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Close

Communities throughout the Southern Great Plains rely on basic physical infrastructure and public services, from roads and water treatment facilities to healthcare and education. However, the efficiency, effectiveness, and equitable distribution of these fundamental services are being affected by climate change.¹⁸⁶ These services are not available equally across the region. For example, in 2018 along the Texas–Mexico border, only 77% of the Texas colonia population had wastewater service.¹⁸⁷ Although colonia residents may have access to an electrical connection, many households remain without energy services because of limited income.¹⁸⁸

Public utilities depend on reliable, safe, and abundant surface water and groundwater. These sources are at risk from increasing air and water temperatures, more frequent and severe drought, more intense rainfall events, and changes in rainfall frequency and timing (Figure 4.2; KM 4.2).^189,190 For example, heavy rainfall events have caused higher concentrations of pollution¹⁹¹ and more sedimentation in reservoirs.¹⁹² Winter storms have led to the loss of water pressure and electricity at utility facilities (Box 26.2). The average annual number of boil-water notices and sanitary-sewer overflows across Texas increased substantially between 2011 and 2016, mostly because of infrastructure damage following extreme drought that caused clay-soil contraction.¹⁹³

Along the Texas coast, massive water withdrawals from coastal aquifers currently cause most of local sea level rise.¹⁹⁴ Precipitation carrying salt spray remains the major source of brackish waters in the Gulf Coast aquifer, as rising seas have yet to cause significant saltwater intrusion.¹⁹⁵ However, rates of average sea level rise from global warming have accelerated since 1992,¹⁹⁶ and western Gulf Coast sea levels are projected to rise 19–27 inches by 2050 using the full range (low to high) of global mean sea level rise scenarios.¹⁹⁷ The resulting saltwater intrusion is expected to pose challenges for drinking-water suppliers, as costs for desalinating seawater are twice those for brackish groundwater.¹⁹⁵

Art × Climate

George Lorio
Sea Rise
(2016, painted, scaled, carved, and constructed wood)

Artist’s statement: Water supports life and can cause destruction. I grew up in New Orleans and worked in water-surged areas of Florida and south Texas where hurricanes result in widespread flooding. Even without a tropical storm, global warming is forcing inundations on coastal areas, which has become the norm. Climate change is occurring. The piece is composed of wooden water motifs surrounding a three-quarter scaled roof section of a house which alludes to a flooded neighborhood.

View the full Art × Climate gallery.

Artworks and artists’ statements are not official Assessment products.

The region’s transportation systems, including its major airport hubs, ports, and highways, are critical for international and domestic commerce. Transportation infrastructure—much of which is aging and in significant need of repair—has been damaged by extreme weather events associated with climate change (KM 13.1).¹⁹⁸ Extreme heat has reduced passenger and cargo loads for aircraft and buckled roadways and railways; heavy rainfall has eroded road, bridge, and rail foundations (Figure 26.20); and coastal storms have interrupted shipping and caused mass evacuations on roadways. When transportation systems fail, the impacts have been particularly devastating for people living in systematically underserved and under-resourced neighborhoods.¹⁷¹ As of 2022, Oklahoma’s and Texas’s state transportation plans do not address threats to transportation services or infrastructure from climate change impacts;^199,200 Kansas’s plan does include threats to infrastructure from extreme weather.²⁰¹

URL

Alternative text

Heavy downpours associated with Hurricane Harvey (2017) caused bridge damage.

Figure 26.20. Extreme events associated with climate change are expected to threaten transportation infrastructure, as demonstrated by past experiences. Here, widespread heavy rains associated with Hurricane Harvey (2017) caused the collapse of a section of Farm to Market Road 762 in Fort Bend County, Texas. Photo credit: Kevin Stillman, Texas Department of Transportation.

Climate change is also affecting public safety systems and their ability to serve community members. For example, during extreme heat events in 2018, the San Antonio Fire Department received significantly more requests for emergency medical services from neighborhoods with higher rankings on social vulnerability indices.²⁰² From 2000 to 2018, firefighters in the Southern Great Plains fought 16 megafires—fires that encompass over 100,000 acres, overwhelm local response capacity, and are extinguished only when weather conditions become favorable.²⁰³ These fires are associated with extremely dry vegetation,²⁰⁴ unusually warm temperatures, and strong winds aloft²⁰³—conditions projected to become more prevalent as the region warms and soil water evaporates more quickly.

In addition to providing resources for infrastructure, utilities, and public safety, local communities support public education systems. These systems serve learners of all ages and support scientific literacy and social cohesion while serving meals and providing other community services—key steps in enabling public engagement solutions.²⁰⁵ As of 2022, only Kansas clearly incorporates human-caused climate change in its K–12 state curriculum standards.^206,207,208 Educators rarely receive formal education on the subject, leading many K–12 science teachers to have misconceptions and critical gaps in climate change knowledge. In a survey of teachers and education students in Dallas–Fort Worth,²⁰⁹ for example, most educators were neutral regarding whether climate scientists disagree about the causes of global warming, even though 97% of these scientists agree (KM 2.1).²¹⁰ Informal education programs fill some climate change literacy gaps left by public education through short courses online (e.g., Martin et al. 2020²¹¹) and Tribal youth education programs.³ Educators can apply successful strategies for teaching the complexities of climate change by actively engaging learners²¹² and infusing lessons with place-based knowledge.²¹³

Environmental monitoring and associated data quality assurance and sharing are important to track changes in climate over time, support evidence-based decisions, and warn people of imminent danger. High-resolution, regional weather and water monitoring networks^{214,215,216,217} supply critical local measurements for decision-makers. However, understanding local impacts of climate extremes and how to adapt is hampered by a lack of systematic, region-wide observations of species, habitats, economic costs and damages, resource demand and consumption, decision processes, and adaptation and mitigation strategies.^{218,219,220,221} Such data would help researchers better understand complex systems and managers develop better local management strategies.

Even without these regional data, cities across the Southern Great Plains are addressing risks to public services through hazard mitigation work and climate adaptation and mitigation actions (Figure 26.21; KM 12.3). Greenburg, Kansas, for example, chose environmentally resilient designs for rebuilding after it was hit by a violent tornado on May 4, 2007 (Box 26.4). In 2020, Oklahoma City produced its first sustainability plan, known as adaptokc, which addressed climate change.²²² Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas also adopted plans that included both mitigation and adaptation actions and have started to address local equity issues as related to climate change impacts (Climate Resilience Action Plan;²²³ Climate Ready, Action and Adaptation Plan;²²⁴ and Comprehensive Environmental and Climate Action Plan²²⁵). Smaller communities that lack resources for stand-alone climate plans are integrating actions into hazard mitigation or comprehensive plans. Results of city actions are becoming evident. For example, in response to frequent flooding that occurred prior to the 1990s, Tulsa enacted flood management actions that resulted in the National Flood Insurance Program awarding Tulsa its highest rating under the Community Rating System, reducing flood insurance premiums by 45%.²²⁶

URL

Alternative text

A wide array of actions are being conducted across the region to address the impacts of climate change.

Figure 26.21. Communities and Tribes across the Southern Great Plains are acting in response to the challenges associated with climate variability and change. Actions include developing plans for hazard mitigation, climate action, and climate resilience (black triangles) or undertaking activities related to hazard mitigation (e.g., building resilient infrastructure) and climate mitigation (e.g., reducing energy usage; red circles). Renewable energy projects (green stars) and agricultural or environmental practices that support sustainability (blue squares) are also beginning. For actions under multiple categories, the main category was mapped. These actions aim to increase community resilience to hazards now and in the future. The mapped examples are representative of others occurring elsewhere across the region. See details at https://arcg.is/0yGjKm. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

The water policies of the three states encourage consumptive use, generally exclude the physical interactions between groundwater and surface waters, and are overseen by multiple agencies across different levels of government. These constraints make water resource solutions difficult in a rapidly changing climate. Nonetheless, Kansas’s 2022 statewide water plan includes climate change, its impacts, and associated recommendations, providing a scientifically credible guide for adaptation and mitigation options.²²⁷ The 2012 Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan went further by incorporating quantitative climate projections to assess future streamflow, municipal and industrial demand, crop irrigation demand, and water storage.²²⁸ The resulting information was applied in the plan’s recommendations. For Texas, however, the 2022 State Water Plan did not consider climate change.²²⁹ Researchers have spotlighted this crucial omission in Texas’s water planning process, especially its lack of planning for droughts worse than the previous record drought.¹⁹⁰

Communities are beginning to welcome nature-based or green infrastructure solutions for water resource challenges. The City of Austin has implemented water catchment systems, bioswales, and other green infrastructure at libraries, schools, and other city properties to reduce stormwater flows.²³⁰ In Norman, Oklahoma, the Division of Utilities is testing how to augment water supplies during drought by returning highly treated water from its water reclamation facility to a nearby reservoir (Figure 26.22).²³¹ Cities of all sizes, from Houston (see Box 26.1) to Lenexa, Kansas (population under 50,000),²³² are adopting green infrastructure programs.²³³

URL

Alternative text

Wastewater treatment services in the region are addressing water resource challenges.

Figure 26.22. The City of Norman’s wastewater treatment facility is testing how to supplement water during drought by returning highly treated water from its water reclamation facility to its nearby reservoir. Water reuse is a well-established adaptation method that is especially useful in semiarid climates. Photo credit: ©City of Norman, Oklahoma.

Faith-based organizations also are responding to climate impacts by raising charitable donations, serving as communication and distribution centers, and recruiting volunteers to assist with both physical and emotional disaster recovery.²³⁴ After Hurricane Harvey (2017), for example, faith communities provided over $242 million (in 2022 dollars) to help flood victims.²³⁵ Interfaith and ecumenical organizations, denominational bodies, local worshipping communities, and individual believers are teaching about climate change and environmental stewardship with their sacred texts or oral traditions²³⁶ and leading environmental actions such as recycling and tree planting.²³⁷ Sharing spiritual beliefs within a local community is an important way to increase social capital for climate adaptation.²³⁸

Overall, actions in the region have been too slow in pace, and investments have been inadequate in scale and scope, compared to what would be needed²⁴⁴ to minimize strongly negative consequences of climate change by midcentury (KM 32.1), within the lifetimes of today’s young adults. For mitigation, calculations indicate that CO₂ emissions would have to decline by about 25% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070.²⁴⁴ While Kansas and Oklahoma reduced carbon emissions 14%–17% between 2010 and 2019, Texas increased emissions by 11%.²⁴⁵ Transformative adaptation (KM 31.3) and climate equity and justice (KMs 20.1, 20.3) provide holistic frameworks for climate adaptation actions. Many actions that enhance the resilience of public services and infrastructure (Figure 26.23) also are expected to reduce future financial costs from extreme events.

URL

Alternative text

Resilience actions can reduce risks to public services caused by increasingly variable severe winter storms.

Figure 26.23. The increasing variability of severe winter storms causes uncertainty and increases risk in public services and infrastructure across the Southern Great Plains, including extended utility outages, uncertainty for school systems, stresses in the transportation system, and additional demands on first responders. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can increase resilience and reduce negative impacts. Figure credit: See figure metadata for contributors.

Close